The only numbers that ultimately matter for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2025 are the wins and losses, which stand at 6 apiece. That's bad news when looking at the AFC playoff picture. It's also confusing in the overall scheme of things, because the Chiefs look like a far more impressive team when taking in basically every other metric used to measure a team's performance.
Coming into Week 14, the Chiefs face a must-win game against the visiting Houston Texans, but that's only the first step. K.C. will need to win out the rest of its regular-season slate if they want to have any chance of making the postseason, and even then, there are scenarios that still have the Chiefs sitting at home in January. That's a wild turn for a team that's played in five of the last six Super Bowls.
All of it also feels off for far more than historical reasons. The Chiefs are ranked No. 6 overall in DVOA at the present moment. Both the offense and defense are ranked in the NFL's top 10 in points (for and allowed), at No. 9 and 7, respectively. Pro Football Reference has their expected record at 8-4, which would have them squarely in the race for a wild card spot and just behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West.
Andy Reid is still very confident in the Chiefs' ability to accomplish what they set out to do, but the margin for error is zero at this stage.
Instead, the Chiefs are going to have to run the table, which brings up all kinds of questions about what exactly is wrong in K.C. Head coach Andy Reid spoke to the media on Monday and was asked how he approaches the situation knowing the metrics don't match the standings.
"I’m telling you, it’s a few plays there," said Reid. "That’s what it is. Penalties are killers. You want to create turnovers on the defensive side. When you have opportunities to do that, you’ve gotta capitalize on them. Third downs become important on both sides of the ball, how you handle those. Can we do better with the rush? We can get a little bit more rush on the defensive side. On the offensive side, we can continue to work our protection and scheme there.
"You can’t allow quarterbacks at this level to stand back there and throw the ball with comfortable feet. We know that. You’ve gotta make sure you have pressure on those guys. And when that happens, you’ve gotta make sure that your coverage is tight. That’s what you work on. You go through that and you work on it and try to get better."
While that sounds like a laundry list of concerns, Reid has said time and again that he believes the team is close to where they want to be. It's just a matter of dialing it in, which goes back to his first comments about believing the difference between winning and losing comes down to just a few plays. He also believes his players can course correct and that things can get better in a hurry.
"Two weeks ago, you’d look at the Dallas Cowboys and just go, ‘Meh, they’re playing okay.’ Two weeks later, they’re playing good football," said Reid. "So things change quickly in this league, one way or the other. So you’ve gotta keep going forward and try to eliminate some of the things that are taking you backwards and do it with a positive attitude. It’s the only way to go."
Ultimately, Reid is confident that his team will still get the job done, even with a .500 record this late in the season. "We’re going to go after you every game. That’s how we roll. We’re gonna try to tickle your tonsils on every play, every game. But that’s the attitude that we’re coming in with and then you let the chips fall where they may ... There’s not a game that I go into that I don’t think we’re gonna get after ya."
Chiefs Kingdom can only hope Reid is right, because the margin for error is zero at this point. If Kansas City can't minimize its mistakes, they're going to have a much longer offseason to think about everything that went wrong. That's true no matter what the metrics have to say.