Five weeks of the 2026 NFL season have passed, and therefore the playoff contenders are beginning to separate themselves. It has been an interesting start to the season for the AFC, as ten of the conference's sixteen teams currently have a winning record. On the contrary, the three remaining winless clubs also reside in the AFC. At this point, there is a clearer picture of the quality of these teams, as we have five games of data to base our analysis on. There is a wide range of teams that have legitimate aspirations to hold up the Lamar Hunt Trophy on January 31st, as well as those who are already ready for the season to be over.
Since the Chiefs are in the AFC, I will focus on the teams in that conference by breaking all sixteen of them down into five different tiers, ranging from Super Bowl contenders to first overall pick contenders. It is still early in the season, and all of these are subject to change in the span of a month. Heck, this space wrote around this time a year ago how the Chiefs were clearly the AFC favorites last season—and we all saw how that turned out.
With that said, here is the AFC broken down into tiers as we sit five weeks into the season.
The AFC's Legitimate Super Bowl Contenders
These are teams that have a realistic chance of getting to and winning Super Bowl LXI in February. They all have at least one of the following: elite quarterback play, great coaching, and well-rounded rosters. These are the clear favorites to represent the conference in SoFi Stadium on Valentine's Day.
Kansas City Chiefs (Current Record: 4-0)
The Chiefs are the only remaining unbeaten team in the AFC and are coming off their bye week. After an offseason in which they faced the most questions in years, the Chiefs have responded by showcasing a completely rejuvenated offense thus far. After three consecutive seasons in which Kansas City struggled offensively, they have averaged 29.5 points per game over the first four contests.
The addition of Kenneth Walker III has been the largest factor, as last season's Super Bowl MVP is off to a historic start running the football. Walker's 537 rushing yards are the most through the first four games of a season in fifteen years. Patrick Mahomes has also played superb football coming off ACL surgery, throwing for 1,038 yards on an efficient 8.1 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. While the Chiefs are not perfect and have questions surrounding their offensive line and pass rush, they are the least flawed AFC team to this point.
Buffalo Bills (Current Record: 4-1)
The Bills are coming off winning the early contender for "Game of the Year" in the 2026 season, with their thrilling 37-34 overtime victory over the Los Angeles Rams. Buffalo once again boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the league behind Josh Allen, James Cook, and a terrific offensive line. The Bills can score with anybody, but their defense presents cause for concern.
Under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, the Bills have struggled mightily against the pass, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 295 yards per game. On the other hand, the Bills' defensive front has been a positive, as edge rusher Gregory Rousseau has taken his game to another level in 2026, as his six sacks are second across the NFL. The Bills have their concerns, and their pass defense needs to improve dramatically, but any team with Josh Allen on the roster is a contender.
Baltimore Ravens (Current Record: 4-1)
The Ravens sit alone atop the best division in the conference, as every team in the AFC North has a winning record. Baltimore is coming off an impressive primetime victory of their own, as they defeated the Atlanta Falcons in overtime with backup quarterback Tyler "Snoop" Huntley under center. While the Ravens will once again be without Lamar Jackson against the Browns on Sunday, Huntley has proven to be capable of holding down the fort, and Jackson should return as soon as next week. Whenever Jackson has been healthy, Baltimore has always been one of the best teams in the AFC, and this year looks to be no different.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Current Record: 4-1)
The Jaguars have wasted no time proving that their red-hot finish to last season, in which they won their final eight regular-season games, was no fluke. Due to playing in a small market, Jacksonville consistently flies under the radar and does not receive the national attention of the aforementioned three teams, but this team is absolutely a threat to reach the Super Bowl. The combination of an outstanding coaching staff, strong running game, legitimate defense, and Trevor Lawrence developing into a borderline elite quarterback makes the Jaguars tough to beat on a weekly basis. Watch out for Duval County to make some noise in January.
The AFC's Playoff-Caliber Teams
These are solid to good teams that are a tough out in every game they play. They are threats to reach the postseason and possibly play spoiler to those in the "Legitimate Contenders" tier, but they lack that second gear that those four teams have. While there is still time for these teams to reach contender status, they have the ceiling of reaching the divisional round to this point in the season.
New England Patriots (Current Record: 3-2)
The defending conference champions sit just one spot short of the contenders tier five weeks into the season. Over the first three games, the Patriots looked to be suffering the dreaded Super Bowl loss hangover, starting 1-2 and scoring two offensive touchdowns in three contests. However, over the past two weeks, New England has resembled the team from a year ago, notching an impressive road win in Buffalo and blowing out a feisty Raiders team last week. After a brutal start to the year, Drake Maye has looked like the MVP finalist he was last season, throwing seven touchdowns over the past two games. With A.J. Brown returning to the fold soon, New England will be a force to be reckoned with down the stretch.
Denver Broncos (Current Record: 4-2)
Evaluating the Broncos has been one of the most difficult tasks this season. For large stretches of every game, they look completely outclassed, particularly on offense. Yet, more often than not over the past year and a half, they find a way to win in the end. The Broncos still have a talented defensive unit, which has been the driving force behind their success in recent years.
Denver has continued to struggle on offense, even with the addition of Jaylen Waddle and Sean Payton taking back play-calling duties last week. Bo Nix has not taken the next step in his third season, as he is averaging a paltry 5.8 yards per attempt and has barely thrown for 1,000 yards this season. If Nix continues to play substandard football, the Broncos will not reach their goals this season. However, they have been a consistent winner under Sean Payton and have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, so don't be surprised if this is another double-digit win season in the Mile High City.
Cincinnati Bengals (Current Record: 3-2)
It is honestly tough to get a read on the Bengals a month into the season. They are 3-2, but their wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-13. Their offense has played well, but not up to their lofty standards, as their average of 25.6 points per game ranks a respectable ninth across the NFL. While Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins remain elite, the Bengals' running game has been anything but, ranking as the seventh-worst rushing attack in the NFL thus far.
Cincinnati's defense, which was the league's worst in 2024-2025, has improved, thanks to the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, and former Chief Bryan Cook. Although improved, the Bengals still rank just 17th in defensive EPA. Effectively, they've gone from a sieve to a league-average defense. The Bengals still have an incredibly high ceiling, but they need to be more consistent over the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Current Record: 3-2)
The Steelers have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team over their first five games. They have notched impressive home victories over the Bengals and the Colts, in which they averaged 32 points per game. On the other hand, they completely no-showed against the Patriots in Foxborough and sustained a disappointing loss to the Browns on Thursday Night Football a couple of weeks back. You never know which version of the Steelers will show up on a given week, but this team is consistently in the playoff picture and looks to be the same in 2026.
The AFC's Struggling-But-Frisky Franchises
These are teams that have not had the starts to the season that they envisioned but could play their way back into contention as the season progresses. While these teams are not likely to be in the Super Bowl, they could make a playoff push if they get hot down the stretch.
Houston Texans (Current Record: 1-4)
The Texans have been among the league's most disappointing teams, as a trendy preseason pick to reach Super Bowl LXI didn't notch their first win until last Sunday, when they beat the hapless Titans 26-3. Despite Houston falling into an early hole, they have to be encouraged by the play of quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is playing his best football since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2023. Through five games, Stroud has thrown for 1,402 yards (4th in the NFL) on a respectable 7.6 yards per attempt. More importantly, the Ohio State product is yet to throw an interception this season, after hurling four in the Texans' divisional round loss to the Patriots last January. The Texans have overcome slow starts in past seasons, and if their defense can play up to expectations to go along with Stroud's quality performance, this can be a dangerous team late in the season.
Indianapolis Colts (Current Record: 2-3)
The Colts have been thoroughly mediocre through five games in 2026, as evidenced by their 2-3 record. They started the season by getting blown out by the Ravens in their own building, which signaled that it could be a long season in the Circle City. However, the Colts have played better over the next four games, as they gave the Chiefs all they could handle in Week 2 before reeling off consecutive wins over the Texans and Commanders. Indianapolis is coming off a disappointing loss in Pittsburgh last Sunday, where they allowed 34 points and struggled to convert in the red zone. However, this team does have enough offensive talent to remain competitive late in the season.
Reality Coming Soon?
These are teams that have gotten off to surprisingly hot starts after low preseason expectations. However, it is fair to wonder whether these squads will still be in the playoff picture at this time next month. Every season, there is an under-the-radar team that gets off to a hot start only to fizzle out as the season progresses, and these teams could fall under that category.
Las Vegas Raiders (Current Record: 3-2)
The Raiders were the talk of the town following their surprising 3-0 start and their competitive loss to the Chiefs in Week 4. However, they are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Patriots last Sunday that made them look like the "Same Ole Raiders." Klint Kubiak looks to be a promising head coach, and Kirk Cousins has played well thus far, as his twelve passing touchdowns rank second in the NFL. That said, their wins have come over the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints, who are a combined 1-14 this season. Five of the Raiders' next six opponents are the Bills, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. Good luck.
Cleveland Browns (Current Record: 3-2)
The Browns being 3-2 has been one of the more shocking developments in the early going this season after winning just eight games in 2024 and 2025 combined. Todd Monken is 60 years old and had never been a head coach at the NFL level, and the Browns' QB situation was a mess, as they named Deshaun Watson their starter despite him not playing at all in 2025 due to an Achilles injury.
While Watson has been inconsistent thus far, Monken has proven to be a good hire, leading the Browns to three consecutive wins over the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Steelers. Cleveland had not won more than two games in a row since the 2023 season prior to this run. The Browns did suffer a disappointing loss to the Jets this past Sunday, when Watson struggled mightily, completing just 15 of his 33 pass attempts for 155 yards. Under Monken, the Browns have not been the laughingstock they once were (so far), but performances like last Sunday are cause for concern moving forward.
The AFC's Bottom Feeders
These are teams that simply aren't good and only serve the purpose of playing spoiler to playoff contenders down the stretch. While there are varying degrees to how bad these teams are, the reality is their seasons will likely be over by Thanksgiving (if not already), and it will be mock draft season for the entire month of December. The Chiefs have already played one of these teams and have three more matchups against two more of them.
New York Jets (Current Record: 2-3)
The Jets are the best team in this tier, and at 2-3, their season is not quite over yet. However, Gang Green is still in a rebuilding phase and will more than likely miss the postseason for the 16th consecutive year. One of the Jets' wins came over the winless Titans (more on them later) in Week 1, and the other came over the aforementioned Browns in a rainstorm...a game one could argue Cleveland lost more than New York won. The Jets may be trending in a positive direction as a franchise, but they are still years away from being a legitimate playoff threat.
Miami Dolphins (Current Record: 0-5)
The Dolphins have performed about to the level of their preseason expectations in 2026. They were projected by many to be the worst team in the NFL and to be a top contender to net the first overall pick in the 2027 draft. Miami's roster is largely devoid of talent, but they do play hard, as evidenced by their last three games being defeats by 14 (to the Chiefs), five, and seven points. New general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley will be tasked with turning the culture around and leading a rebuild in South Beach. That said, the Dolphins are not going to finish with many wins this season.
Los Angeles Chargers (Current Record: 0-5)
Remember when the Chargers were supposed to win the AFC West and contend for a Super Bowl this season? After consecutive eleven-win seasons under Jim Harbaugh, the Bolts have cratered in 2026, as a combination of injuries and an overrated roster immediately proved to be problematic. While some drank the perpetual offseason Kool-Aid for the Chargers, this space noticed the red flags all the way back in March. The bottom line is this is an objectively bad football team whose coach seems checked out and whose $52 million quarterback has regressed significantly. The Chiefs have no excuse not to win by multiple scores on Sunday.
Tennessee Titans (Current Record: 0-5)
The Titans have been the worst team in the NFL for multiple years running now. Since the start of the 2024 season, their record is a crisp 6-33, and that winning percentage will only go down as the season progresses. We will not talk about the fact that one of those six wins came against the Chiefs. Regardless, the Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll experiment has yielded disastrous early results, and Cam Ward has been arguably the most ineffective starting quarterback in the NFL this season. One has to wonder if the Titans finish with the first overall pick, and whether they will select Ward's replacement in April.
There are 13 weeks left in the season, and these rankings could age very poorly in as little as two weeks. However, this is where I feel things stand across the AFC at the moment. The most important part for the Chiefs is to continue stacking wins and to remain atop the contenders tier.
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