Raiders vs Chiefs: Some heartening (and disheartening) statistics for K.C. in Week 13

Even though the Kansas City Chiefs barely squeaked by one of the most laughable teams in the league this past weekend in Carolina, and even though Coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are constantly besmirched in sports media every week, they have put up some incredible statistics that seem to go under the radar.

But, for every amazing and insane statistic that is a positive for Kansas City there is an immediate and concerning statistic that could easily make Chiefs Kingdom a little worried about their squad that is currently looking to be the first team to ever win three-straight Super Bowls.

Some Good News...

First, some good news for fans of Kansas City: their offense is really, really good on third down.

In fact, Patrick Mahomes is the highest-graded QB in the league on third down according to PFF with a grade of 90.2. Not only that, Mahomes' quarterback rating of 123.5 on third downs this season is the highest of any QB that has played in every game this year.

Mahomes and company have a success rate of 52.7% on the season, the best in the league, just ahead of Tampa Bay at 50.37%. Amazingly, Matt Nagy and Reid's playcalling on third down has been more successful on the road as well—converting on 57.83% compared to their 46.15% success rate at Arrowhead.

Will that number increase against the Raiders on Black Friday in Kansas City? Who knows, but it is important and incredible that when other teams typically get pushed off the field by opposing defenses Kansas City does not.

It's HARD to run against Kansas City

Last year's defense set up some extremely high expectations for this season, and although they haven't been great in the secondary (we'll get to that shortly), the Chiefs have been one of the toughest teams to run against in the entire NFL.

Defensive Ccoordinator Steve Spagnuolo has utilized a defensive line without the likes of Charles Omenihu—who returns on Black Friday—and made them the third-best team in run defense.

Kansas City only allows 85.3 yards per game on the ground, behind Baltimore (77.9) and Minnesota (74.7) for third place in the NFL. Compare that to last year's defense (113.0 rush yards per game) that was firmly sitting at the top of the rankings and it's easy to see why opposing offensive coordinators prefer to throw against the Chiefs.

Some notable running backs to rush for less than 50 yards against K.C. this season include: Derrick Henry (46), J.K. Dobbins (32), Bijan Robinson (31) and Alvin Kamara (26). In fact, the only running back to rush for 50+ yards was San Francisco's Jordan Mason who had 58 in a loss back in week seven.

Now that Omenihu is returning to this defensive line it will likely become even harder to run against Spagnuolo and the defense. Hopefully the pressure will get better with Omenihu as well, because even though Chris Jones ranks first amongst defensive tackles in pass rush win rates (18%) the whole team ranks 13th.

One score games are nothing for K.C.

Everybody wants to belittle the Chiefs because they can't seem to blowout teams that can (and should) be blown out, but their ability to win close games should honestly be studied.

So far eight of the Chiefs' 10 victories have been one-score games, the most in the league, but going back to last season the Chiefs have won 13-straight wins in one-score games.

Not only is it amazing that Kansas City continues to win these close games, their 13 wins in a row is tied with the 2003-04 Patriots for the longest such streak in one-score games in NFL history.

Much like those Tom Brady-Bill Belichick Patriots the Chiefs are just finding ways to win and simultaneously pissing off fanbases around the NFL while doing so.

Now for some bad news...

As Mary Poppins once sang "a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down" and that is true with statistics too. Sometimes a few good stats (see above) helps fans accept the bad that also come with.

So, with that in mind, there are a few concerning statistics that Kansas City is putting forward heading into Black Friday that might need some help ASAP.

This team misses Jaylen Watson

The loss of L'Jarius Sneed was always going to be a talking point this season, but what wasn't expected was the huge loss of Jaylen Watson who was injured against the 49ers.

When Watson was on the field, the Chiefs were only giving up a 60.8% completion percentage, making them a top-ten secondary in the league at that time. Since his injury, the Chiefs have allowed 70.1% of the passes to be completed, one of the worst in the league.

Watson finished his season with a coverage rating of 74.2 according to PFF. Compare that to Nazeeh Johnson (47.8), Chamarri Conner (67.4), Trent McDuffie (68.6) and it's easy to see why the Chiefs' secondary has been a topic of conversation on social media and amongst Chiefs Kingdom during the last month.

Where are the sacks?

Last year the Chiefs truly were "Sack Nation" as they finished in the top three in sack percentage (8.27%) as well as top two in total sacks (57). Meanwhile, this season, the Chiefs can't seem to do much unless Spagnuolo calls a cornerback blitz or some sort of mismatch happens on the edge.

Kansas City only has 21 sacks so far this season, that's the fifth-least in the league and is tied with such teams as Jacksonville and Miami who are a combined 7-15 on the season.

So will the addition of Omenihu help the sacks flow like they did last season? Omenihu collected seven sacks in ten games to end the '23 season, including a big one against the Ravens in the AFC Championship.

Hopefully the return of big number 90 will allow Chris Jones, Mike Danna, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah to get free a little more often. If not, the Chiefs will have to find more creative ways to get to the quarterback if they want to hold up their third-straight Lombardi trophy.

Third downs are great for offense, terrible for defense

As stated earlier, the Chiefs are one of the best offensive teams when facing third down conversions and have been all season long. Sadly, the same can not be said about the defense when mired in the same scenarios.

Over the last five games, the Chiefs defense has allowed their opponents to convert 49% of third down attempts (32-of-65), which is the same as Carolina's season-long percentage that ranks dead last in the NFL.

Even worse, Kansas City had one of the best third-down defenses last season (35.53% success rate). It doesn't get much better on fourth down either as KC has allowed nearly 53% of opponents' plays to be converted instead of forcing a turnover on downs.

Over the past three games the Chiefs have allowed the second-most third down conversions (seven per game) which is right behind their Black Friday opponent, Las Vegas, who has allowed 7.3 per game since the beginning of November.

No matter which way you shake it, the Chiefs' defense on third downs might be one of the worst aspects of the entire team. Now they need to find a way to get off the field, allow Mahomes to get on the field, and keep Kansas City in the win column.

Again, some stats look better than others but all statistics tell you something important: the truth. Be sure to check out Arrowhead Addict every week for some more crazy, interesting, sometimes depressing, sometimes exciting statistics before every game.