Statistics will not always tell the full story. The NFL is a week-to-week league and can deceive our thoughts at any moment on a given team. But as always, there are some notable trends to monitor going into specific matchups. That is true once again in the case of Sunday's AFC West division meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos.
Kansas City and Denver are squaring off for the first time this year. The Chiefs are 8-0 and have two division wins already. Meanwhile, the Broncos sit at 5-4 and have gone 1-1 in a couple of division games at home. While Kansas City was expected to be near the top of the AFC again, Denver is making a fascinating case to get back to the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50.
What are some interesting statistical notes to monitor entering Chiefs vs. Broncos? Here are three key stats going into Sunday's affair.
Pressure Percentage
Both Denver and Kansas City rank in the top 10 in pressure percentage via Pro Football Reference. The Broncos currently sit 8th in the league at 27 percent and the Chiefs are 10th at a nearly identical 26.3 percent. We have known that Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is not afraid to send all-out pressures at any moment for years. But for Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, he has been bringing more pressure than ever, compared to his prior years as a defensive coordinator around the NFL.
Denver is blitzing at 35.6 percent of dropbacks, second only to the Minnesota Vikings (39.9 percent) per Pro Football Reference. The Broncos are simply getting home more often this season. For example, Denver finished last season with the fourth-lowest pressure percentage under Joseph at 18.2 percent.
It feels like each team will be willing to throw continuous blitzes at each other. History tells us Patrick Mahomes is one of the best against it. Rookie Bo Nix is still trying to navigate his timing in the pocket as a thrower, however. If anything, he has found some success by escaping and extending plays with his legs.
Nix's Elongated Time To Throw
Nix is currently tied for the third-highest average time to throw figure (3.06 seconds) in the entire NFL via Next Gen Stats. Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson are the two passers he is tied with in that category. Only Brock Purdy (3.08 seconds) and Jalen Hurts (3.09 seconds) are narrowly averaging a longer time to throw and release of the ball.
Nix has had some brighter moments as his rookie campaign has gone on. But when he is making mistakes, defenses are keying in on where he is pre-determining his throws. Nix can get in a phase of staring down his targets and not looking off the other end of the field. When you add that in with his longer release to get the ball out, defenses can often get him in a spell of firing hard and erratic passes. If he cannot play on time, the Broncos quarterback is one who plays rushed and panicked at an even faster pace than some other young passers. Kansas City will likely look to speed up his clock and get him thinking to possess the ball longer.
Third Down Conversion Percentage
Kansas City has been absolutely amazing on third down offense over the last month or so. The Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in third down conversion percentage per Team Rankings. They are at 53.21 percent on the season, overall. But just over the last three weeks, KC has converted 32 of 48 third down attempts via Matt McMullen. That is good enough for a conversion percentage of 67 percent.
Not only is Mahomes starting to feel more comfortable and playing better as the season goes on. The Chiefs are confident in their playbook and can beat teams on third down with any call or design. The balance of the offense and the improvements at pass catcher are a big reason why.
On the other hand, there is a stark contrast between the Chiefs and the Broncos, when it comes to Denver's offense converting on third down. Team Rankings shows that Denver ranks 27th in the NFL this season, having a third down conversion percentage of 33.61 percent. They have done a little better lately, converting 50 percent of third downs in their last three games.
But if you look at the numerous ways in which Kansas City is moving the ball on third down, Denver does not offer the same amount of disparity. The Broncos are either relying on Nix's legs to get pass the sticks. Or, they are throwing up many contested passes in one-on-one situations. Obviously, the Broncos will have to be dialed in on third down to keep up with the Chiefs offense, if Kansas City is rolling.