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Just how good has the Chiefs offense been on 3rd down lately?

By Lyle Graversen

Nov 4, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates after a first down during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Nov 4, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates after a first down during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
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The Kansas City Chiefs moved to 8-0 with a 30-24 overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Of those eight wins this season, six of them have been by a touchdown or less. So Kansas City may not be dominating opponents, but they are consistently finding a way to do enought to get the job done. Recently, that recipe for success has included being fantastic on 3rd down.

The Chiefs were 12 of 18 on third down on Monday against the Buccaneers. That's converting 2/3 of their 3rd downs. This wasn't a new development for KC either. Over their last three games the Chiefs have converted 32 of 48 third downs. Again, that's exactly 2/3 or a 66.7% conversion rate. That's beyond good for the NFL. That's elite.

Their recent success has their season third down conversion rate sitting at 53.2%. That is now tops in the NFL. In fact, they entered Monday Night Football in second place behind the Buccaneers, but KC's 12 for 18 conversions combined with them holding Tampa to 5 of 11 conversions was enough for them to unseat them for the top spot in the NFL.

The Chiefs may not be the explosive big play offense that they were in Patrick Mahomes early years, but they have become a very consistent offense when it comes to consistently making positive yards and picking up first downs. If they can continue to pick up over 50% of the their third downs they will be hard to beat with the quality defense and special teams that they have.

If you're wondering how their current thrid down conversion rate compares to previous seasons, here is a list of the past six seasons with Patrick Mahomes.

  • 2023: 43.6%
  • 2022: 48.7%
  • 2021: 52.2%
  • 2020: 49.0%
  • 2019: 47.6%
  • 2018: 47.2%

So the Chiefs current 53.2% third down conversion rate would be the best of the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era. Their current rate of 66.7% over the past three games probably isn't realistic to maintain the rest of the season, but if Kansas City can continue to be the best team in the NFL at converting third downs it will go a long ways towards helping them complete their quest for the NFL's first Super Bowl three-peat.

While 66.7% may be hard to maintain, I don't think it's a coincidence that the conversion rate has gone up since KC started running the ball physically between the tackles with Kareem Hunt, getting Travis Kelce more involved in the offense, and then successfully adding DeAndre Hopkins to the passing attack. So there is reason to believe that KC can continue to be great on third down.

So what do you think Chiefs fans? Do you think KC can maintain their recent success on third down? I'd love to read your thoughts in the comments below.

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