It's no secret that the Kansas City Chiefs are in perhaps their most vulnerable regular season of the Patrick Mahomes era. They're 5-5, currently the 9th seed in the AFC, and have lost to all four AFC playoff teams they've played (Chargers, Jaguars, Bills, and Broncos). Dreams of their 10th consecutive AFC West title have been all but crushed.
The Chiefs aren't completely cooked yet, but they definitely need to lock in. They need to solve their running game, their pass rush needs to step up, and Patrick Mahomes is one of the team's weakest links at the moment.
The "good" news is that three of the teams in front of them are dealing with injury problems: the Texans (C.J. Stroud), Chargers (Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, and Omarion Hampton), and Steelers (Aaron Rodgers). There's reason to believe their main competition will lose a significant number of games during the remainder of the season.
Speaking of the remainder of the season, let's predict how the regular season will play out for the Kansas City Chiefs. What does their schedule look like, and how many games can they win? Will it be enough for the playoffs?
Week 12: vs. Indianapolis Colts (November 23, Noon, CBS)
This is exactly what the Chiefs need right now. After yet another humbling defeat, they return home for the first time in four weeks to face the 8-2 Indianapolis Colts, who are coming off their bye week (and have never lost to Patrick Mahomes in the regular season) and also have old Chiefs nemesis Lou Anarumo as their defensive coordinator. The Chiefs are in an ideal spot. Sarcasm off.
In all seriousness, the Chiefs should be worried about this game. I picked them to lose this game all the way back in May, even before we knew that Indianapolis was competent. The Colts are a good team with significant talent on both sides of the ball. If the Chiefs want to win this game, they need to pressure Daniel Jones, even if they have to blitz, limit Jonathan Taylor, and stay efficient against a well-coached Indianapolis defense. If they can do all of those things, they can win, but I don't think they will.
PREDICTION: Colts 29, Chiefs 22 and the Chiefs freefall to 5-6.
Week 13: @ Dallas Cowboys (November 27, 3:30, CBS)
Will the Chiefs finish the "No Win November" challenge against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving? I don't think so. The Chiefs tend to beat bad teams and lose to quality ones (with the exception of the Lions and maybe the Ravens), and Dallas isn't good.
The Cowboys have a great passing offense and a horrible defense. That's a formula for a high-scoring game and the first "close" win for the Chiefs in 2025.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 27 and the Chiefs bounce back to 6-6.
Week 14: vs. Houston Texans (December 7, 7:20, NBC)
The Houston Texans are another AFC team that's struggled to meet expectations in 2025. Their defense has been awesome, but their offense has been a huge problem. C.J. Stroud has yet to return to his rookie-year level, but it's hard to blame him given his offensive line and play-calling.
The Chiefs will be coming off a mini-bye week and have a glimmer of hope now that they're back to .500. They'll keep the momentum going as they beat the Texans in a home primetime game.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 20, Texans 16 and the Chiefs ride to 7-6.
Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (December 14, Noon, CBS)
The Chargers are in the process of falling apart. Yes, they have Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, but they're one of the most injured teams in the NFL. Left tackle Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending patellar injury in August, right tackle Joe Alt underwent season-ending ankle surgery earlier this month, and first-round rookie running back Omarion Hampton is still on injured reserve due to an ankle injury suffered in Week 5.
Los Angeles' offensive line is an abject disaster. The Chiefs have struggled to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but if they can't even pressure Herbert in this game, they might as well not show up for the rest of the season. They'll win this game and get closer to a playoff spot.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20 and the Chiefs bolt to 8-6.
Week 16: @ Tennessee Titans (December 21, Noon, CBS)
The Tennessee Titans currently hold the worst record in the NFL at a dismal 1-9. After also having the worst record last season, it makes sense that they currently have an interim head coach, former Chargers coach Mike McCoy. Given how desperate the Chiefs are for wins at this point, if they lose this game, it just might be the new low point in the Mahomes era.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 23, Titans 14 and the Chiefs get to 9-6.
Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos (December 25, 7:15, Amazon Prime)
For the second time in history, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos on Christmas Night. In the other Christmas Night matchup in 2016, the Chiefs beat Denver to officially end the Broncos' reign over the AFC West. Will the Broncos return the favor in 2025? I think Denver will win the division this season, but they won't win this game, in my opinion.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 25, Broncos 23 and the Chiefs climb to 10-6.
Week 18: @ Las Vegas Raiders (TBD, TBD, TBD)
The Raiders are a hot mess this season. Geno Smith needs to write back, Pete Carroll should have stayed in de facto retirement, and Ashton Jeanty has not been worth the 6th overall pick.
In this scenario, the Chiefs are pretty much fighting for their playoff lives. If they need to win this game to get back to the postseason, they will, but anything is on the table with the 2025 team.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 27, Raiders 15 and the Chiefs finish 11-6.
Summary
If my predictions come true, the Chiefs will finish 11-6 and sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card. Their AFC West streak might be over, but they still have an opportunity to continue their streak of AFC Championship appearances.
Is 11-6 at this point hopeful thinking? Probably, but there is reason to believe the wins will start coming. According to Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs have had the hardest schedule in the NFL so far this season, but have the 21st hardest/12th easiest remaining schedule. Those metrics will only get more favorable once the Colts game is in the rearview mirror.
As bleak as the situation looks for the Chiefs and as pessimistic as many fans feel (including myself to an extent), this team is still alive for a playoff berth. If they can get into the playoffs, anything can happen from there. Just like two years ago.