Our Chiefs 2025 game-by-game picks include three big surprises

After Wednesday's release of the 2025 NFL schedule, we finally know when the Chiefs will play every opponent. What does their schedule look like and what could their record look like?
AFC Championship Game: Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs
AFC Championship Game: Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs | Jamie Squire/GettyImages

The 2025 NFL schedule is finally out. Before today, we knew the “Who” and “Where,” but now we finally know the “When.” They open the season against the Los Angeles Chargers in São Paulo, Brazil, and will play yet another game on Christmas Day.

The Chiefs are projected to appear in seven primetime games, tied for the most in the NFL. These include three matchups on NBC, two on ESPN/ABC, and one on Amazon Prime. Notably, one of their games will be the very first to be broadcast exclusively on YouTube/YouTube TV.

What does the entire schedule look like, and how will the Chiefs fare in each game? Which games are stone-cold locks, and which ones could be challenging for Kansas City?

Let's review every game on the Kansas City Chiefs' upcoming schedule and project the outcome of each matchup.

Week 1: @ Los Angeles Chargers (September 5, 7:00, YouTube TV)

For the second consecutive year, the NFL will hold a Week 1 game in Brazil. This marks the fifth different country where the Chiefs will have played a regular-season game since 2015 (U.S., Mexico, U.K., and Germany).

The Chargers, despite making the playoffs last season, still have a long way to go and proved that with a quick Wild Card Round exit. Although they added new skill position players early in the draft, their overall roster hasn’t improved significantly compared to last year. Some may argue Los Angeles is the least improved team in the AFC West this offseason. While they’ll remain competitive, they’re far from a playoff lock.

The Chiefs have a strong track record in season openers, going 6-1 in Week 1 during the Mahomes era and 10-2 under Andy Reid. Expect this early-season success to continue with a victory over the Fighting Jim Harbaughs.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 24, Chargers 18 and the Chiefs start 1-0.

Week 2: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (September 14, 3:25, FOX)

This matchup will likely be the most anticipated regular-season home game of the 2025 season for Chiefs fans. Serving as the home opener and a Super Bowl LIX rematch, this game marks the fifth consecutive season Kansas City and Philadelphia will face each other.

The Eagles secured their revenge for Super Bowl LVII during the 2023 regular season, and the Chiefs now hope to reciprocate by avenging their Super Bowl LIX defeat. Despite Philadelphia losing some roster depth, their core remains intact, positioning them to be a contender yet again. It won’t matter, as the Chiefs will win this one.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 29, Eagles 22 and the Chiefs soar to 2-0.

Week 3: @ New York Giants (September 21, 7:20, NBC)

Assuming he hasn’t worn out his welcome by this point, the Chiefs will once again face Russell Wilson, now with his fourth team in five seasons. This Giants team may prove to be better than most expect. Should they get at least somewhat competent quarterback play, their defense has enough talent to make them respectable. However, unless Wilson manages to recapture his 2020 form, Kansas City should secure a relatively comfortable win against them.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 23, Giants 10 and the Chiefs ride to 3-0.

Week 4: vs. Baltimore Ravens (September 28, 3:25,CBS)

Baltimore’s 2025 season will be defined solely by their playoff performance. Despite back-to-back MVP-caliber years from Lamar Jackson, they’ve won just two playoff games the last two seasons, both against far inferior opponents at home. The Chiefs have lost to the Ravens only once in the Andy Reid era, and with this matchup at Arrowhead, don’t expect the second such loss to happen here.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 27, Ravens 21 and the Chiefs fly to to 4-0.

Week 5: @ Jacksonville Jaguars (October 6, 7:15, ESPN/ABC)

The new-look Jaguars, led by GM James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen, made a lot of interesting moves this offseason, with their boldest being trading up from pick 5 to 2 in the draft, surrendering a 2026 first-rounder in the process. They selected reigning Heisman winner Travis Hunter, whose success as both wide receiver and cornerback could make this a worthwhile gamble.

Despite these changes, Jacksonville still faces significant questions—their defense remains questionable, their offensive line is subpar, it’s unclear if Trevor Lawrence will bounce back, and can Liam Coen even coach? Assuming the Chiefs’ offense returns to form, expect them to put up points against this vulnerable defense on Monday Night Football.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 41, Jaguars 15 and the Chiefs improve to 5-0.

Week 6: vs. Detroit Lions (October 13, 7:20, NBC)

If not for the countless defensive players sidelined by injuries midseason, Detroit might have faced the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX. Instead, the top-seeded Lions suffered a shocking home loss to the Washington Commanders in the NFC Divisional Round. Despite losing both coordinators, Detroit remains a great team poised to make another playoff appearance under Dan Campbell.

Interestingly, Jared Goff has never lost to Patrick Mahomes. While this stat means absolutely nothing for this matchup, it’s reasonable to expect the Chiefs to drop at least one of their home games against a challenging NFC schedule. It also doesn’t help that the Chiefs will be on a short week after a road Monday Night Football game.

PREDICTION: Lions 24, Chiefs 23 and the Chiefs fall to 5-1.

Week 7: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (October 19, Noon, CBS)

The Raiders are poised for significant improvement this season. With Pete Carroll's hiring and the Geno Smith trade, they finally have stability at the two most important spots. Their quality draft class was headlined by potential star running back Ashton Jeanty.

Despite these improvements, the Chiefs remain a vastly superior team and should win this matchup, especially at Arrowhead. It wouldn’t be totally shocking if Pete Carroll and Geno Smith steal a road win, but expect Kansas City to win this one.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 35, Raiders 17 and the Chiefs sail to 6-1.

Week 8: vs. Washington Commanders (October 27, 7:15, ESPN/ABC)

The Commanders made a Cinderella run to the NFC Championship Game behind potential superstar quarterback Jayden Daniels. There’s a slight chance Washington takes a step back this season, as their defense remains subpar with minimal draft investment. They wisely prioritized supporting Daniels instead, bolstering both the offensive line and receiving corps.

If Daniels experiences a small sophomore slump, similar to the Texans last year, they could still make the playoffs but might not pass the eye test as convincingly as the year before.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 33, Commanders 16 and the Chiefs improve to 7-1.

Week 9: @ Buffalo Bills (November 2, 3:25, CBS)

Stop me if you’ve heard this story before: The Chiefs lose a regular-season game to the Bills, only to beat them in the playoffs a few months later. Buffalo appears destined for another AFC East crown, but the real question remains whether they can secure the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC postseason and host a potential playoff battle with KC. Despite Kansas City likely suffering another regular-season defeat to Buffalo, we already know how this story will ultimately end.

PREDICTION: Bills 22, Chiefs 20 and the Chiefs stumble to 7-2.

Week 10: BYE

Week 11: @ Denver Broncos (November 16, 3:25, CBS)

The Denver Broncos are determined not to fall back out of the playoff race in 2025. Although Bo Nix impressed as a rookie, a potential sophomore slump would be catastrophic for a team that barely secured the final Wild Card spot last season.

To help avoid regression, Denver tried to bolster their roster through free agency, signing former 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga, along with tight end Evan Engram, while also strengthening their defense and backfield in the draft with cornerback Jahdae Barron and running back R.J. Harvey.

The Chiefs will avenge their humiliating 38-0 Week 18 beatdown from last season and win in Denver for the first time since 2022. Not to mention that the Chiefs have been excellent after bye weeks in the regular season under Andy Reid.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, Broncos 23 and the Chiefs climb to 8-2.

Week 12: vs. Indianapolis Colts (November 23, Noon, CBS)

The Chiefs will face their old nemesis Lou Anarumo again, but he’ll be wearing a new logo. The Colts quietly possess a very good roster, but their quarterback situation is an issue, with Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, and Riley Leonard filling out a less-than-ideal depth chart.

If Anarumo wasn’t the defensive coordinator, this game could potentially be a serious blowout. With him calling Indy’s defense, expect an ugly, low-scoring affair. Given how this is a weird home game sandwiched between two important/high-profile road games, this feels like a trap game.

PREDICTION: Colts 18, Chiefs 16 and the Chiefs fall to 8-3.

Week 13: @ Dallas Cowboys (November 27, 3:30, CBS)

Jerry Jones fears irrelevance more than anything else. He doesn’t need his team making deep playoff runs—he simply wants the Cowboys to remain in the national spotlight. When the Chiefs visit Dallas on Thanksgiving (their first since 2006), Jones can rest assured knowing that his beloved team will command attention that day.

The Cowboys tend to embarrass themselves in the biggest moments, and it remains to be seen whether Brian Schottenheimer (son of former Chiefs head coach Marty Schottenheimer) is the solution to their problems. All signs point to the Chiefs dominating this holiday matchup.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 35, Cowboys 16 and the Chiefs march to 9-3.

Week 14: vs. Houston Texans (December 7, 7:20, NBC)

Will the Texans get their revenge on the Chiefs after their Divisional Round loss in January? Probably not. C.J. Stroud took a step back last season and their offensive line was a hot mess. While they’re hoping their new offensive coordinator works wonders, the Chiefs remain the much better team.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 26, Texans 16 and the Chiefs race to 10-3.

Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (December 14, Noon, CBS)

The Chiefs will take care of business at home. Though San Angeles will be a tough team to sweep, they don’t have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and they’re due for some slight regression.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20 and the Chiefs bolt to 11-3.

Week 16: @ Tennessee Titans (December 21, Noon, CBS)

Fun fact: Patrick Mahomes has never won a regular-season road game in three AFC venues: Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Tennessee. For whatever reason, the Titans have been a particular thorn in Mahomes’ side. Outside of the 2019–20 AFC Championship Game, his regular-season record against Tennessee is just 1-2, with his lone victory requiring overtime against a Malik Willis-led offense… at home. There’s a first time for everything, and the Chiefs will not lose a game to the Titans when racing for the No. 1 seed.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 17, Titans 9 and the Chiefs improve to 12-3.

Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos (December 25, 7:15, Amazon Prime)

For the third consecutive year, much to the chagrin of a lot of fans, Kansas City will play on Christmas Day. The Chiefs always seem to lose at least one divisional game every year and always seem to lose a weird home game every season, with the exception of last year. I don’t think that will repeat itself in 2025. The field goal won’t be blocked this time, and every Chiefs fan’s Christmas will be ruined by a divisional foe for the second time in three years.

PREDICTION: Broncos 25, Chiefs 23 and the Chiefs stumble to 12-4.

Week 18: @ Las Vegas Raiders (TBD, TBD, TBD)

Although the Raiders should be much more competitive than last season, the Chiefs will prevail yet again in the same stadium where they won Super Bowl LVIII. If Kansas City needs to win this game for the No. 1 seed, they will.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 27, Raiders 15 and the Chiefs finish 13-4.

Conclusion

Although a 13-4 regular season following a 15-2 campaign might disappoint some Chiefs fans, it represents a realistic scenario. While this team could certainly win 15 games again, they did have several close calls in 2024, so the Football Gods could return the favor in 2025.

In addition, a slight dip in record doesn’t automatically mean the team is worse. The KC offense underperformed last season, struggling with injuries, poor left tackle play, minimal explosiveness, and Mahomes performing merely as a top-10 quarterback rather than the league's best. Hopefully, these issues will prove to have been properly addressed.

Given how stacked the AFC is at the top, 13-4 might not be enough to secure the No. 1 seed, with tiebreakers potentially determining playoff seeding. Their regular season matchups against Baltimore and Buffalo will be critical, potentially deciding between playing in the Wild Card Round or getting a free pass directly to the Divisional Round.

While this year's Chiefs roster appears more talented than last year's, success isn’t guaranteed. They very well could experience a Super Bowl hangover similar to 2021, dropping silly games they should win. Regardless, Kansas City remains the justified favorite in the AFC West and among the top contenders for Super Bowl LX. Whatever their final record, they’ll be one of the most feared postseason teams—assuming they even make it.