Travis Kelce will face the perfect opponent to get back on track in Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce may be the greatest tight end in the history of the NFL. Just this past summer I tried to make an unbiased case for why the numbers point to him being the G.O.A.T. (greatest of all time). But regardless of where you think Kelce ranks among the NFL's greatest tight ends, there is no arguing that he has had the most prolific run of production in NFL history, but through three games this season it looks like that streak could be in jeopardy.

From 2016 through 2022, Kelce put up an unprecedented seven straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. No other tight end in NFL history has more than four 1,000-yard seasons total, let alone consecutive. Last season that streak came to an end, but only by 16 yards, and then Kelce was an absolute monster in the postseason.

That's why many have been surprised that Kelce's numbers have taken a nosedive through three games so far this season. He has a total of just 8 receptions for 69 yards and no touchdowns. That's an average of just 2.7 receptions for 23 yards per game. Over a 17-game season that average would total just 45.3 receptions for 391 yards. Yes, we were expecting Kelce to be phased out of such heavy use as he gets older, but this severe drop-off has taken most by surprise.

The L.A. Chargers are an ideal opponent to help Travis Kelce get back on track for the Chiefs.

Yes, it's only three games and it is too early to doubt Kelce, but this three-game stretch is the biggest dry spell we've seen since he became a standout player for the Chiefs. Even last season when most agreed he was conserving himself for the playoffs, he never had a stretch like this. It may be worth noting though that his least productive three-game stretch last season was his last three games of the regular season when he totaled a combined 13 receptions for 88 yards and zero touchdowns.

On one hand, that's encouraging because Kelce followed that three-game dry spell last season with an incredibly productive postseason. However, it's also a little discouraging that his least productive six games over the last calendar year were the last six regular season games he has played in. Still, there is reason to think that this week's matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers could be the perfect matchup for Kelce to break out of this slump.

The Chargers haven't been good or bad against tight ends through three games. Brock Bowers had 6 receptions for 58 yards in Week 1. The duo of Tommy Tremble and Ja'Tavion Sanders had 5 receptions for 31 yards in Week 2. Last week, Pat Freiermuth had 4 receptions for 33 yards. With tight end receiving numbers down around the league to start the season (unless, of course, they are playing the Chiefs), those numbers are pretty average.

So why is this a great matchup for Kelce? Simply put, Kelce has been fantastic against the Chargers in recent history. While much has been made about Kelce "turning it on" in the playoffs last season, his most productive game was actually in Week 6 of the regular season against the Chargers. He went off for 12 receptions for 179 yards and 1 touchdown in that game. He famously opted not to play in their Week 18 game against the Chargers last season, choosing to rest up for the playoffs rather than try to keep his streak of 1,000-yard seasons alive.

It wasn't just that one game last season either. In the five games Kelce has played against the Chargers over the past three seasons, he put up 40 receptions for 640 yards and 6 touchdowns. That's an average of 8 receptions for 128 yards and 1.2 touchdowns. In other words, in the last five games that Kelce has played against the Chargers, he's put up elite numbers, including last season when we think of Kelce having just an average (by his standards) regular season.

To top things off, the Chargers may be without starting safety Derwin James, who was suspended one game by the NFL for repeated illegal hits. James has played a major role in covering Kelce in years past, and it means the Chargers will be down a key piece in covering the middle of the field.

Plus, the Chiefs passing offense has been centered around Rashee Rice to start the season. He put up an impressive 12 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown last week against the Falcons. The Chiefs like to use Rice on slants, crossers, and in the same intermediate areas of the field where Kelce often operates as well. If the Chargers are forced to focus their coverage in those areas on Rice, it could free up Kelce even more.

You know that Kelce is hearing all the talk about how he's fallen off. You know Mahomes is hearing that same talk about his go-to guy with whom he's won three Super Bowls. When you combine that with the Chargers having to focus on Rashee Rice and potentially being without Derwin James, things are certainly set up well for Kelce to put up big numbers against a rival once again.

So what do you think Chiefs fans? Are you worried that Kelce is truly falling off? Is his lack of production early on this season being overblown because of the media spotlight his personal life has put on him? Do you think he'll have another big game against the Chargers this week and silence his critics? I'd love to read your thoughts in the comments below.