Statistics will not always tell the full story. The NFL is a week-to-week league and can deceive our thoughts on any team at a given moment. But entering Monday night's matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints, some numbers have started to grow into recognizable trends.
New Orleans is 2-2 with two consecutive losses, albeit both games that were close to going the other way. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are still undefeated at 4-0, despite being very unsatisfied with their play on offense.
What are some key statistical notes to monitor entering Chiefs vs. Saints? Here are three key stats that could determine the matchup on Monday Night Football.
First Half Points/Game
Team scoring in the first half of games does not always reveal who the top Super Bowl contenders are. Though, getting out in front and being able to keep opponents guessing a great recipe for putting teams away in the second half. Through the first four games of the season, the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to first-half points per game.
New Orleans ranks best in the NFL in that category according to Team Rankings. The Saints are averaging 20.5 first half points per game in 2024. The first two games against the Panthers (30 first half points) and the Cowboys (35 first half points) heavily skews this. Yet, New Orleans has been able to stay on schedule and ahead of the chains during most of their first half showings to this point.
On the flip side, Kansas City ranks just 18th in the NFL in first-half points per game. The Chiefs are averaging just 10.8 points through the first two quarters, meaning the Saints have almost doubled them in this category. Kansas City has historically been able to dig itself out of holes and early deficits in the Patrick Mahomes era. But with the offense being banged up at skill positions, the Chiefs have to find a way to start faster and leave more offensive plays available to them. Whichever way KC opens the first half this week could decide if the Chiefs remain undefeated.
2 Takeaways/Game
The New Orleans Saints have been tremendous at creating takeaways so far this season. NOLA is tied for third in the NFL with Chicago at generating two takeaways per game. Six of the Saints' eight takeaways are interceptions. This Saints secondary has grown into a well-rounded group that offers both instincts and physicality. They can force errant throws and inaccuracy in the most critical moments. And of course, their opponent for this week has struggled mightily to protect the football.
The Chiefs had a horrible turnover differential last year, even with winning the Super Bowl at the end of the season. KC is already averaging 1.8 giveaways per game, tied for 28th in the NFL. Mahomes has thrown five interceptions total and at least one in each game so far. Carson Steele has also fumbled in two consecutive weeks. If Kansas City turns it over even more against New Orleans, the Saints have repeatedly capitalized on scoring off turnovers. According to NFL.com, New Orleans is fifth in the NFL in creating takeaways into points.
7th In Rushing Offense Vs. 8th In Rushing Defense
The Saints rushing attack going up against the Chiefs' run defense is going to be an intriguing battle. Through four weeks, New Orleans is seventh in rushing yards, while Kansas City is eighth in rushing yards allowed. Alvin Kamara has looked rejuvenated in the Saints' backfield. He already has 362 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, in addition to averaging 4.5 yards per carry. New Orleans has been able to get many chunk gains and explosive runs with him while attacking with outside zone concepts.
The Chiefs had a huge test against an impressive Chargers rushing attack last week. Kansas City did not back down and was able to stymie the Los Angeles ground game. The Chargers' 55 rushing yards last week were the fewest they have had in a single game this season. Kansas City plugged gaps and filled run fits quickly. The Chiefs linebackers are beginning to show the comfort and confidence that we saw last year.
If Kansas City has more success in stopping the run, it will neutralize New Orleans and make them one-dimensional. Granted, Derek Carr has had some bright moments throwing down the field. But, the Chiefs know how much he can fail to pull the trigger if pressure builds, and the passing game is diminished to just simple dropbacks.