Red zone struggles are among the key stats that will define Chiefs vs Chargers

Statistics cannot always tell the full story. This 2024 NFL season is also still in the early stages, which means figuring out what is real and what is not is still a hazy proposition, depending on the team. For the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers, there are still some early trends to monitor entering Sunday's AFC West showdown.

What are some key statistical notes to monitor entering Chiefs vs. Chargers? What stats are real and what are not? Here are three key stats that could determine the matchup.

3.3 yards/carry

The Chiefs enter Sunday 12th in the NFL in yards allowed per rush attempt. That is already a pretty fair number. However, if you take the Lamar Jackson rushing stats from Week 1 away, it has been an even greater result for the Kansas City run defense.

Bijan Robinson was held to just 1.9 yards per carry last week on 16 carries. Overall, Kansas City has held running backs to just 3.3 yards per carry. And entering a date with the Chargers, limiting those chunk gains once again will be even more important for the Chiefs.

That the Chargers have an efficient run game may not be that surprising with Jim Harbaugh as head coach. However, it has been better than expected—even explosive. L.A. has averaged five yards per carry through three weeks, which ranks 7th in the NFL. Specifically, J.K. Dobbins has been a relentless runner, averaging 7.4 yards per carry and 103.3 yards per game so far this season.

With injuries piling up on the Chargers offense, the emphasis of the run game may be of greater importance to Los Angeles. If so, the Chiefs' run defense could get a steady dose of the ground game and will look to stand tall.

22nd/24th in the red zone

It feels like the Chiefs' struggles in the red zone have been a recurring theme over the last few years. For as dynamic and special as some of these offensive players are, nothing ever looks easy for Kansas City in the red zone. That was extremely evident last week against Atlanta. If the Chiefs have more success in that area, wins would come far more easily, without the grinding at the end of regulation.

On the flip side, the Chargers are also struggling to find consistency in the red zone. Part of that could be due to a change in offensive philosophy around Justin Herbert. Yet, Los Angeles is truly lacking in depth at the skill positions. There is just not many names that scare opposing defenders when having to defend in a condensed area.

According to Team Rankings, the Chiefs and the Chargers are nearly identical in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns so far this year. Kansas City ranks 22nd in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on just 44.44 percent of red zone trips through three weeks. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is tied for 24th in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on just 42.86 percent of red zone trips through three weeks.

Can either team find their footing in this area?

1.7 giveaways/game

The Chiefs are averaging 1.7 giveaways per game this year. Amid their offensive struggles last year, KC averaged a similar 1.5 giveaways per game for the entire 2023 season. Four of the five turnovers from the Chiefs offense are interceptions from Patrick Mahomes. Carson Steele also lost a fumble for the other turnover against Cincinnati.

Mahomes has admitted early struggles of his own. He looks antsy in the pocket at times, possibly not trusting things upfront and within certain pass concepts. A couple of his interceptions this year have been some of the worst of his career. Not seeing the defenders were a major point in that.

The Chargers have not given the ball away as much, with just two offensive turnovers. And even though they have not faced any high-flying offenses, Los Angeles has taken advantage of short fields and has largely sustained long drives. If that occurs again and Kansas City continues to give it away, the game could get shortened against the Chiefs. Protecting the ball is a must.