Whew! I can only rewatch Hard Knocks and reread Seth Keysor's newsletter so many times in one summer. The NFL summer is in full swing, with dedicated Kansas City Chiefs fans making the pilgrimage to St. Joseph, Missouri.
The setting offers a more intimate view of the defending Super Bowl champions, but the time is also right. Now is the time before everything shifts into another gear and the regular season is not such a distant future. Your Chiefs play a football game in less than two weeks. Then, that pressure ratchets up again and again, until the season's ultimate end.
It may be a foolish exercise, but everyone has ideas on how each team will fare in 2024. Anything is possible before Week 1. However, there are some well-established tiers throughout the NFL. Let's take a look before Kansas City's preseason action and see where each team stacks up for 2024.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Remember this: The Kansas City Chiefs, as back-to-back champs, demand respect. The gap between them and the rest of the AFC West is huge, making their path to a three-peat even easier. With Patrick Mahomes leading the charge, it's impossible to count them out before the regular season even begins. Additionally, Joe Thuney's return to the training camp is a sign of improving health for Kansas City. Though the defensive back room is still taking shape and the wide receiver corps has something to prove, this could be the most complete Chiefs team in the Mahomes era.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Like Dallas, preseason contract disputes hang over San Francisco. But, unlike the Cowboys, the 49ers have recent success and a strong coaching staff to put that aside and focus on football. Quarterback Brock Purdy is an exceptional quarterback—admit it. Running back Christian McCaffrey is the league's best by a wide margin. Chiefs fans can all point and laugh at head coach Kyle Shanahan falling short in the Super Bowl, but the fact is, he got there. There is no reason, on paper, that his team isn't in the Caesars Superdome on Feb. 9, 2025.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is one of those signal callers where the supporting cast has to be good enough, and they are Super Bowl contenders. Kansas City beat Baltimore by a touchdown in the playoffs, despite all the self-inflicted wounds by the Ravens. The Ravens were the league's best regular-season team and have the personnel to repeat that mark. Replacing their lost defensive personnel across the board will not be easy, but the reinforcements are already in Baltimore.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
No team may have a wider gap between their floor and ceiling than the 2024 Bengals. After struggling last year in the league's toughest division, Cincinnati attacks the regular season with an edge, remembering their 2021 and 2022 rise. Quarterback Joe Burrow hopefully starts the season healthy, with top wideout Ja'Marr Chase leading the receiving attack. Couple the injury issues last year with uncharacteristic production from defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, it is easy to write off 2023 as a blip and look forward to 2024.
5. Detroit Lions
Head coach Dan Campbell's motivation has spilled over into the football fandom at large, quickly making the Lions one of America's favorite teams. Quarterback Jared Goff seemingly has a home once again, while the high-scoring offense pairs well with a rough-and-tumble defense. Detroit invested heavily in the defense this offseason, but assuming all the pieces fit together is unwise. That side of the football needs to show they are Super Bowl-ready, like the offense did in 2023.
6. Philadelphia Eagles
The conclusion of the Eagles' 2023 season was a fluke, and they will prove that this year. With two new coordinators flanking head coach Nick Sirianni, he has no more reasons not to be a premiere NFC team. While the retirements of center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox hurt the team's morale, they have added immense talent, from running back Saquon Barkley to edge rusher Bryce Huff. With a splendid draft and top-tier talent returning, Philadelphia will be a Super Bowl contender once again.
7. Houston Texans
The deserved hype surrounding sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud has Houston's stock going through the roof. While they are certainly the AFC South favorites, their rise into the AFC's top tier is still up for debate. Stroud now has receiver Stefon Diggs to target and running back Joe Mixon to bolster the running game. The draft wasn't optimal, but their defensive additions are among the league's best across the board.
8. Dallas Cowboys
How can such a talented roster with a deep-pocketed owner be so polarized? Off-field contract situations hang over this team like a dark cloud, while owner Jerry Jones' "all in" statement fell flat with a dismal offseason where Dallas lost more production than it replaced. The offensive unit has two of the league's most talented players, but a questionable supporting cast. The defense is littered with impact players, but life after Dan Quinn will be difficult.
9. Buffalo Bills
The Bills did the one thing an NFL team cannot do after losing to the Chiefs: get worse. Buffalo still has a marquee player in quarterback Josh Allen, but his supporting cast thinned out in an offseason flurry. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady's midseason ascension did not spark the immediate change many hoped it would, but perhaps a full offseason changes that. With Diggs in Houston and a defense depleted of its stars, things are bleak for the Bills.
10. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are a dangerous team with quarterback Jordan Love under contract, but the young Green Bay roster offers untapped potential and hope in the fanbase. Head coach Matt LaFleur cannot hold down a defensive coordinator, but hopefully, investments in defensive veterans and rookies will help make defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's first year productive. The gap between them and the Lions is wide, but hardly insurmountable.
11. Miami Dolphins
NFL fans are aware of the Dolphins' ability to score in bunches. The main concern for 2024 is their defense, as they need to at least slow down the opposing teams in the high-scoring games Miami plays. New defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver is drawing rave reviews among Dolphins players, a step in the right direction. The team invested in feast-or-famine quarterback Tua Tagovailoa this offseason, marrying him and head coach Mike McDaniel for better or worse.
12. Los Angeles Rams
There is no replacing future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald. But the Rams will have to do just that, and then some, in 2024. Los Angeles invested two top-40 picks on the defensive front, reinforcing them with cornerback additions Tre'Davious White and Darius Williams. Quarterback Matthew Stafford enters his 16th NFL season with an elite receiving duo and, most importantly for Los Angeles, two competent backups.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars will prove their mettle early this season, starting with four consecutive games against 2023 playoff teams. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence will have to prove he is worth the massive extension he received this offseason, while the Jaguars kept most of the major players under contract and added impact players in free agency. Head coach Doug Pederson has a good roster to work with. The question remains: who holds who back in Jacksonville?
14. New York Jets
Carrington Harrison of 610 Sports declared quarterback Aaron Rodgers as the most significant NFL storyline of the offseason. While I see his point, I remain skeptical that an aging quarterback returning from an Achilles tear can single-handedly reverse the fortunes of the team in New York. The impact of pass rusher Haason Reddick's absence continues to reverberate, depriving New York of their key offseason addition as well.
15. Cleveland Browns
2024 has to be the year where Cleveland's offense doesn't hold back their elite defense. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has been an oft-injured dud over the past two seasons, but the returning skill position players kept the offense potent if inconsistent last year. If the team can tread water without running back Nick Chubb, that will keep them in the AFC North conversation.
16. Atlanta Falcons
Just because you are the best team in your division, it doesn't necessarily make you a great NFL team. The Falcons made significant changes this offseason, improving their passing game and acquiring veteran Kirk Cousins. Running back Bijan Robinson can showcase his skills when the opposing defense isn't solely focused on him. However, the loss of veteran pass rushers Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree has weakened the pass rush. Nonetheless, there is a youthful movement underway in Atlanta's defense.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Will the Chargers improve from their 2023 season? Absolutely. Will it be to the degree pundits predict for the offseason darlings? Absolutely not. Head coach Jim Harbaugh will start changing the on-field results and off-field culture, but real change takes time. Besides, the receiving corps is thinner than a 2024 Chipotle portion. With a shaky defense and new coaches across the board, the Chargers have an uphill climb.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers' 2024 season squarely rests upon quarterback Baker Mayfield. With a fat new contract and an excellent receiving duo, expectations are high for the Oklahoma alum. The concerns lie with the short-handed offensive line and replacing key offseason losses on the defensive side. A weak NFC South should bolster Tampa Bay's postseason odds, but there is no room for error.
19. Indianapolis Colts
You know the saying, putting all your eggs in one basket? Well, the Indianapolis Colts put all their eggs into a paper basket named quarterback Anthy Richardson. His health determines the team's 2024 outlook, but his potential is worth the patience. During training camp, the defensive backs for the Colts will be closely watched, and they will need to prove they are capable of performing. The AFC South receiving corps will put their defense to the test.
20. Chicago Bears
All the pressure is on Caleb Williams in Chicago. The top overall pick in this year's draft has a deep pass-catching corps, Pro Bowl running back D'Andre Swift behind him, and a palatable offensive line heading into training camp. The defense has their work cut out for them in the NFC North and I am not sold on offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. But, that is why we play the games for real, not just on paper.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Every time I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to have a down year or be out of it, they prove me wrong. Head coach Mike Tomlin has made a career of proving the doubters wrong, and 2024 should be no different. The quarterback competition is neck-and-neck, and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's scheme benefits both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Linebacker Patrick Queen makes a daunting defense even scarier, one that can stifle any AFC North opponent.
22. Arizona Cardinals
Should we give the Arizona Cardinals a mulligan on 2023? New coach, Kyler Murray's absence, all that, and the team was still highly competitive. This was a hard-loss team all last year, and it looks much better on paper. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. lands in a favorable position, while the Arizona defense has plenty of fresh, hungry faces. There are not many sure things on this roster, though, making them a boom-or-bust team in the NFC West.
23. Seattle Seahawks
The temperatures are hot in the Pacific Northwest, but new head coach Mike Macdonald's seat is ice cold. He brings a dominant defensive pedigree to Seattle and a scheme that should take an underrated Seattle defense to the next level. Quarterback Geno Smith, the offensive line, and how their offense looks without Pete Carroll will be interesting and determine if this team is more than a gutsy underdog all season.
24. Minnesota Vikings
The Kirk Cousins era is over; enter rookie J.J. McCarthy. He will sit behind Sam Darnold for the time being, but fans will want the 2024 10th overall pick sooner rather than later. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores' scheme will assemble on the fly with several new additions, via the draft or free agency, on that side of the ball. The Vikings' room for error is small, but wide receiver Justin Jefferson can carry them, right?
25. Tennessee Titans
Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed's new home is an interesting case heading into 2024. The team invested heavily in several areas, including the defense and wideouts. There is a path for them to be not only to be a good team, but a playoff team in 2024. However, their futures ultimately rely on second-year quarterback Will Levis. If their offensive line holds up and Levis takes the next step, the Titans will be very good. But, until then...
26. Las Vegas Raiders
The LAs Vegas Raiders may be the most lopsided team in the NFL. The silver and black project to have a dominant defense under first-year head coach Antonio Pierce, but a marshmallow-soft offense without a clear top quarterback. New offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has his work cut out for him, but a formidable defensive front and underrated defensive backfield will keep Las Vegas in more games than expected.
27. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints' biggest opponent this season is their own salary cap. Financial restrictions really hamstrung the team's offseason, but the team still landed former first overall pick Chase Young. The NFC South is hardly a powerhouse, but veterans like quarterback Derek Carr and cornerback Marshon Lattimore need to find previous forms if New Orleans wants to compete in 2024.
28. Washington Commanders
Thanks to general manager Adam Peters' newfound leadership, the Washington Commanders made significant progress this offseason. Quarterback Jayden Daniels, in my opinion, will provide a stable, long-term solution. The defense will have to grow accustomed to head coach Dan Quinn's philosophy, which could require some time for the group. The Commanders will get off to a slow start but pick up steam in the second half.
29. Denver Broncos
Head coach Sean Payton finally made the Denver Broncos roster his own, but there is still plenty of work to do. A three-way quarterback battle's result will determine their season outlook, with plenty of receiving options to boot. The defense will not live up to its lofty traditional status, but cornerback Pat Surtain II will continue to be one of the game's best defensive backs.
30. New York Giants
The New York Giants have been very entertaining on Hard Knocks, but the hardest hits come for them once the regular season starts. Quarterback Daniel Jones can't can't-watch television, while running back Devin Singletary being their premiere offensive weapon, speaks about how bad the unit is. Their defensive line will hopefully be elite, but that facet alone cannot power winning NFL football in 2024.
31. New England Patriots
I was two years old the last time the New England Patriots started the season without Bill Belichick leading the charge. Freshman head coach Jerod Mayo has his work cut out for him while operating at a talent deficit in one of the league's strongest divisions. The third overall pick, Drake Maye, is likely to attract a lot of attention. However, he currently lacks reliable receiving options, and the offensive line in front of him could potentially derail the rookie's career before it even begins.
32. Carolina Panthers
Things are looking grim for the Giants and Patriots, but the Carolina Panthers seem to be in a league of their own when it comes to struggles. General manager Dan Morgan did not make enough moves to strengthen the roster, and head coach Dawill will likely pay the price for that. When you combine this with poor ownership and a suffering fan base, it's clear that the Panthers are not looking strong heading into 2024.