Chiefs vs. Bills final score prediction for NFL divisional round (Can Kansas City upset?)

Using the latest odds to predict the final score for the Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills matchup in the NFL playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

NFL fans will be treated to another playoff edition of the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, two teams that have played some instant classics in the postseason in the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen era. 

This time, however, the game won’t be in Kansas City.

This is the first true road game of Patrick Mahomes’ playoff career, but the Chiefs quarterback could be in a favorable spot to get his team the win against a Buffalo squad that beat Kansas City in the regular season. 

The Chiefs are underdogs in this matchup, but there is one Mahomes stat that Chiefs fans will love when looking at this game. 

We’ll get into that – and a final score prediction for this game – by using the latest odds to guide us. Let’s dive in. 

Chiefs vs. Bills odds, spread and total

Chiefs final score prediction

Mahomes and the Chiefs may be underdogs, but in his NFL career, Mahomes is a shocking 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog and 7-3 straight up.


The Chiefs are just 2.5-point dogs in this game, so it’s not crazy to think that Mahomes and the Chiefs could pull off the outright upset in this game. 

In fact, Kansas City is my favorite upset pick of the week, and I broke down why on BetSided

“Kansas City had the No. 2 scoring defense in the regular season, and the team showed it is built for the playoffs with a blowout win over Miami on Wild Card Weekend. While this is Mahomes' first true road playoff game, I have a hard time fading the two-time defending Super Bowl champion.

I’m worried about Josh Allen and the Bills turning the ball over – they had the seventh most in the league this season with 28 -- as that could completely flip this game in the Chiefs' favor.”

Given the snowy and cold weather that has recently hit Buffalo, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game turn into more of a grind-it-out affair. I think that benefit’s Kansas City, as the team has been one of the best defenses in the NFL all season. 

Allen is just 5-4 in his playoff career, and he’s yet to knock off Mahomes when it matters most. Give me the Chiefs to win a close game – that falls short of the total – on Sunday. 

Final score prediction: Chiefs 23, Bills 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.