Chiefs fans should temper expectations after rookie LT earns early starting reps

Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach waited with bated breath as every pick of the second round of the 2024 NFL draft went by. Veach was locked in on one prospect that he and Andy Reid both loved—and around No. 50 overall, the Chiefs considered trading up for him.

With some patience and nerves, the Chiefs lasted until pick 63 to make a small trade up to select Kingsley Suamataia, an offensive tackle out of Brigham Young University.

The Chiefs loved Suamataia's skill set, raw athleticism and versatility. The BYU connection was strong between Suamataia and Andy Reid, the man they call "grandpa" out in Utah. Beyond just the college connection, however, there's a lot to like about Suamataia as a prospect.

The BYU product was graded as Bruce Feldman's third-highest "freak", a list that's compiled annually ranking the best athletes in college football. He also has NFL bloodlines that connect him to great players like Penei Sewell and Puka Nacua.

Coming into his first season, what should the Chiefs expect from the rookie tackle in year one?

What's the context for Suamataia's first season?

The 2024 NFL draft was rich in tackle talent and the NFL feasted on it. Selected at pick 63, Suamataia was the 12th tackle taken in the draft.

Leading into the draft there was some speculation that the Chiefs could take a "project" tackle at the end of the first with names like: Patrick Paul, Roger Rosengarten, or Kingsley. Instead, Kingsley was the last tackle taken in a run on them in the second round. Chiefs fans should ask themselves why teams passed on him for other prospects at the same position. As high as the Chiefs are on his talents, the rest of the league might not have been.

Historically, the talent drop off at tackle in a draft happens quickly. After the first three or four tackles are taken the drop off is massive in production. In 2023, there wasn't a single tackle taken from pick 27 until the Chiefs took Wanya Morris at pick 92 (some tackles were taken but played at guard in 2023). In 2022, Trevor Penning went with the 22nd pick and then the next tackle was taken at 69 Nicholas Petit-Frere. Neither have been average starters in their NFL career.

The point is that taking day two tackles is an extreme gamble if you are looking for a starter, especially on the left side.

The good news? In the first padded practice of training camp, it sounds like Suamataia is running as the starting left tackle. A welcome sight as the first week featured a heavy mixture of Wanya Morris at left to begin camp. If Kingsley wins the job the Chiefs will have to defy the odds to 3-peat as champions. In the Super Bowl era, only four rookie left tackles have started in a Super Bowl, and of those four, only two have been on the winning team.

If the Chiefs do end up starting Suamataia, he benefits from an experienced offensive line returning 4/5 of its starters. Playing next to Joe Thuney when he returns is also a great benefit of the infrastructure the Chiefs have in place.

What will success look like for Suamataia?

With the historic precedent set for rookie left tackles drafted outside the top 20 picks, the Chiefs have to manage expectations for Suamataia.

There's a chance he struggles even if he wins the starting job. In 2023, he only had 201 true pass sets (non-run or RPO) one of the lowest numbers of tackles drafted in the first two rounds. BYU runs a heavy run and RPO scheme which is part of the reason why talented players like Kingsley and 2023 draft pick Blake Freeland (Colts) fell as far as they did. Pure pass protection—something the Chiefs offense does a lot—is something that Suamataia needs lots of reps in.

Something that can help Suamataia is if Jawaan Taylor can reach the expectations that the Chiefs had for him when they signed him to a hefty contract. We've seen historically the Chiefs are able to scheme around average tackle play on one side but when both sides struggle that's where the problems occur. Suamataia is going to need help, especially with the first two teams the Chiefs offense will face with two highly versatile and complex defenses in the Ravens and the Bengals.

Chiefs fans should expect struggles or even a possible role change for Suamataia. Its possible he won't finish the year as the starting left tackle whether due to injury (to himself or another tackle) or his performance. What's being asked of him is so important: to defend the most valuable player in football on the way toward a historic run of success. All of that on his plate as a rookie is a tremendous pressure for the 12th tackle taken in his draft class.

The bottom line for Kingsley Suamataia

The Chiefs are expecting a lot out of Kingsley Suamataia. If Wanya Morris wins the job or if Donovan Smith is brought back, this doesn't mean it was a wasted pick or that he's a "bust." The most important thing the Chiefs can do is develop his raw natural talent to the best of their ability and not stunt his development.

Throwing him into a situation that he's not ready to handle could harm his progress—and Patrick Mahomes. There's lots to be excited about with him running with the first-team offense, but it's best to remember the long term is what matters most.