From 2018-2024, quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs through one of the most impressive runs in NFL history. The Chiefs made seven straight AFC Championship Games, appeared in five Super Bowls, and won three of them. Mahomes was the central figure through all of it, breaking NFL records, winning both MVPs and Super Bowl MVPs, and earning his spot at the very pinnacle of the NFL universe.
During that stretch, only bitter fans of opposing teams (and Ja'Marr Chase) denied his brilliance and rightful claim to the title of best quarterback in the NFL and arguably the best overall player as well. Then the Chiefs followed up a disappointing performance in Super Bowl LIX with the worst season of the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs were bad. Mahomes was still good, but without much help around him, his once-prolific numbers were down (a trend that started in 2023), and the bottom fell out of the Chiefs' dynasty run. If that wasn't bad enough, Mahomes also suffered the most significant injury of his NFL career, blowing out his knee and missing the final four games of the season.
Now, for the first time since Mahomes and the Chiefs took the NFL by storm, Mahomes' status as the NFL's best quarterback is being questioned by more than just opposing fan bases. Pro Football Focus released its rankings of all 32 starting quarterbacks ahead of the 2026 season. The list coincides with the release of its 2026 NFL QB Annual that takes a statistical deep dive into each NFL quarterback. It's worth checking out if you're into statistical analysis, but their grading system doesn't love Mahomes, and it was definitely reflected in his ranking on their list.
PFF's grading system has never loved Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes finished fourth in their rankings behind Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson. The general argument that PFF has (and has always had) when it comes to Patrick Mahomes is that while he has some jaw-dropping, amazing plays, a lot of his production comes from just efficiently executing the Chiefs' offense. This quote from their rankings spells it out:
"Since becoming the starter in 2018, Mahomes has been the NFL's most dangerous quarterback on routine, scheme-generated throws, leading the league with 94 touchdowns on zero-graded passes since 2019 — 30 more than the next-closest quarterback"
That statement sums up where many Chiefs fans and PFF disagree. Most fans would argue that it's absurd for a touchdown throw (let alone 94 of them) to be graded as a neutral play that doesn't help the QB's grade. PFF's stance is that if a quarterback does something that the average quarterback is expected to do, it is neutral. If they do something positive that the average quarterback typically doesn't do, it is positively graded, and if they mess up something an average quarterback could do, it is negatively graded.
The Chiefs' decline exposed the gap between grades and results
For years, Patrick Mahomes easily executed Andy Reid's offense, and his supporting cast helped him produce massive numbers while the Chiefs racked up wins and Super Bowl titles. Meanwhile, players like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson made a few more "above-average," high-degree-of-difficulty plays that boosted their PFF grades, and then they would eventually lose to Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs. The end results were enough to keep Mahomes at the top of ranking lists (even at PFF), but after a down year in 2025, the lack of results now allows them to have their rankings match their grading system.
In their own analytical way, PFF did seem to acknowledge that part of the reason for Mahomes' down season was that the system and Kansas City's supporting cast were no longer getting the job done around him, stating, "His 5.12 yards per attempt on zero-graded throws was a career low" and "his 75.2 clean-pocket passing grade was nearly 10 points below his previous career low." In other words, just executing the offense wasn't working anymore, and even when he had a clean pocket, he couldn't find anyone open.
What should a quarterback ranking actually measure?
Everyone knows and recognizes that the Chiefs had a down season last year. There is no disputing that. There is also no questioning that Patrick Mahomes' past three seasons were less statistically prolific than the first five seasons of his career. Is that because Mahomes has regressed, or because the scheme has become stagnant and the supporting cast has let him down?
The real question here is: What is a QB ranking list really ranking? Is it just a list of who had the best season last year? If so, it is completely valid not to have Patrick Mahomes at the top of the list. Is it a list of who they expect to be the most successful in 2026? If so, it is again justifiable not to have Mahomes at the top of the list because he's coming off an injury, and there is no proof yet that the scheme and supporting cast will be better than last season. However, if it is really a list of who the most talented quarterback is, or a list of who most experts would want quarterbacking their team this coming season if everything else were equal, then any argument for someone other than Patrick Mahomes is flawed.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson are all really good quarterbacks. They have all put up impressive numbers and amazing highlights, but Patrick Mahomes has put up just as many amazing numbers and highlights in his career and has proven that, when things matter most, he will find a way to win. His postseason success and Super Bowl wins set him apart, even if they haven't figured out a way to incorporate that into an analytical QB grade.
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