No matter how big any storyline has been for the Kansas City Chiefs during this 2026 NFL offseason, whether it was Travis Kelce taking a little time to decide whether to return for a 14th season, trading Trent McDuffie to the Los Angeles Rams, adding reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency, or moving up a few spots in the draft to take cornerback Mansoor Delane, nothing is more important than Patrick Mahomes' health.
Mahomes, of course, saw his 2025 campaign come to an abrupt end last December, tearing both the ACL and LCL in his left knee late in a Week 15 defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers, a loss that officially knocked Kansas City out of playoff contention.
But while the two-time NFL MVP wasted no time setting himself up to return, undergoing surgery the very next day, there's still no guarantee that he'll be ready for the Chiefs' Week 1 matchup with the rival Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football on September 14, which is exactly nine months after the tears occurred, by the way, putting him on the low end of the 9-to-12-month recovery timeline an injury of this severity typically requires.
Nevertheless, even if Justin Fields has to take the snaps early in the year, NFL oddsmakers seem to believe that Mahomes will return and make enough of an impact to at least win Comeback Player of the Year.
Patrick Mahomes leads the way in the early 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
Here's a quick look at the top 10 in the early 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting odds.
Player | Position | Team | 2026 CPOY Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs | +160 |
Kyler Murray | QB | Minnesota Vikings | +600 |
Micah Parsons | EDGE | Green Bay Packers | +750 |
Malik Nabers | WR | New York Giants | +1000 |
Daniel Jones | QB | Indianapolis Colts | +1400 |
Nick Bosa | EDGE | San Francisco 49ers | +2000 |
George Kittle | TE | San Francisco 49ers | +2000 |
Deshaun Watson | QB | Cleveland Browns | +2000 |
Travis Hunter | CB | Jacksonville Jaguars | +2500 |
Fred Warner | LB | San Francisco 49ers | +2500 |
As you can see, Mahomes is currently the overwhelming favorite in the CPOY race at +160, with Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray sitting in a distant second at +600. Truth be told, one would have naturally assumed that Green Bay Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons would have been in that No. 2 slot, but he surprisingly sits in third at +750.
Speaking of sitting in third, that's actually where Mahomes sits in the early 2026 NFL MVP odds. Well, he's actually tied for third at +1000 alongside Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, with that superstar trio trailing only Josh Allen (+550) and Lamar Jackson (+650).
But the fact that Mahomes resides in the top five at all simply proves that he's expected to come back and be the quarterback he was before his injury took place. And while that may be asking a lot, is it really safe to bet against No. 15?
All betting odds courtesy of DraftKings. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. The content in this article should not be considered betting advice. Gambling involves risk, and one should only gamble with funds that one can comfortably afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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