NFL playoff picture, Week 13: Chiefs stay atop AFC despite ugly performance

The Kansas City Chiefs secured another unimpressive win in Week 12, this time grinding out a victory against the lowly Carolina Panthers. Though he wasn't dominant, Patrick Mahomes showed signs of returning to form, connecting for 3 touchdowns through the air while racking up 269 passing yards and adding 60 yards on the ground.

However, concerns emerged on the defensive side, as the Chiefs allowed 18 points and 183 yards in the second half alone to a Panthers offense that had been largely dismal throughout the season. The win raised more questions than answers about Kansas City's championship aspirations.

After the twelfth week of the 2024-25 NFL season, which teams are currently in a playoff position and still have hope?

AFC Playoff Standings, Week 13

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)

4. Houston Texans (7-5)

5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

7. Denver Broncos (7-5)

In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (5-6), Indianapolis Colts (5-7), and Cincinnati Bengals (4-7).

In a snowy battle, the Browns stunned the Steelers on Thursday Night Football. The Titans pulled off an upset victory of their own versus the Texans. Meanwhile, the Dolphins continued their hot streak with a commanding win over the struggling Patriots. The Lions traveled to Indianapolis and dismantled the Colts in their own building.

The Chiefs narrowly escaped an upset by the Panthers as Spencer Shrader hit the game-winning field goal as time expired. The Broncos dominated the Raiders as Gardner Minshew went down with a season-ending injury. On Monday Night Football, the Ravens pulled away in the second half to win the Harbaugh Bowl over the Chargers.

The Steelers can kiss their hopes for the AFC's top seed goodbye, while Jameis Winston builds his case for a 2025 starting role somewhere. The Titans have established themselves as spoilers down the stretch, as the Texans prove they're not yet ready for championship contention. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have reignited their playoff hopes, the Patriots can only look ahead to next season's rebuild. The Colts' postseason dreams are probably gone unless their offense figures it out.

The Chiefs' three-peat aspirations depend on defensive improvements. The Broncos are a legitimate playoff contender for the first time since 2015, while the Raiders need to start scouting quarterbacks in the upcoming draft. The Ravens righted their ship, but the Chargers' receiving corps remains an Achilles' heel that could derail any postseason hopes of a deep run.

An early look at AFC playoff odds

According to Team Rankings, the Chiefs remain the favorites to secure the AFC's #1 seed with a 51.7% chance. The Bills are behind them at 42.7%, while the Steelers (3.5%) and Ravens (1.4%) still have a small glimmer of hope.

The Bills are still the favorites in the AFC to win Super Bowl LIX at 15.8%. The Chiefs are second with an 11.3% chance to win it all. They're followed by the Ravens at 6.9%, while the Steelers (3.1%), Texans (2.2%), and Chargers (2.1%) are right behind them.

While the Chiefs are in a great position atop the AFC with just one loss and a multi-game division lead, a few cracks have emerged. Their offense continues to search for consistent explosiveness, and now their once-reliable defense has shown signs of regression. Specifically, their defense has failed to get stops in pivotal moments—an issue that has risen over the last four games and marks a significant departure from last season's dominant performance.

The likely return of pass rusher Charles Omenihu this week should provide a much-needed boost to their pass rush. However, the glaring weakness at the CB2 position remains unaddressed, and unless the defense can recapture its 2023 form, Patrick Mahomes and the offense will need to step up.