AFC Playoff Standings, Week 16
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
4. Houston Texans (9-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
6. Denver Broncos (9-5)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (6-8), Miami Dolphins (6-8) and Cincinnati Bengals (6-8).
The Chiefs beat the Browns by two touchdowns, but they still struggled on offense. The Texans beat the Dolphins following a poor showing by Tua Tagovailoa. The Bengals easily beat the Titans, keeping their playoff hopes alive. The Jets narrowly beat the Jaguars in a contest between struggling AFC teams. The Ravens thoroughly dominated the Giants, with Lamar Jackson throwing 5 touchdowns and completing nearly all of his passes. The Broncos defeated the Colts, pretty much locking up a playoff spot, barring an epic collapse.
The Chargers were embarrassed at home by the Buccaneers. The Patriots fell to the Cardinals on the road. The Bills offense dominated the Lions as Josh Allen pretty much locked up the MVP. The Steelers were blown out by the Eagles, pretty much ending their hopes for the #1 seed. Desmond Ridder failed to get his revenge against the Falcons as the Raiders continued to freefall.
A look at the AFC playoff odds
According to Team Rankings, the Chiefs remain the favorites to secure the AFC's #1 seed, but their odds have decreased to 68.2%. The Bills are behind them at 31.0%, while the Steelers (0.8%) still have a small glimmer of hope, but need a lot of help.
The Bills remain the favorites in the AFC to win Super Bowl LIX at 18.7%. The Chiefs are second with an 11.7% chance to win it all. Kansas City is followed by the Ravens at 6.8%, while the Steelers (3.2%), Texans (2.4%), Broncos (1.4%), and Chargers (1.4%) fall in line behind them.
To be perfectly honest, this version of the Kansas City Chiefs is not capable of winning the Super Bowl. Their offense lacks a clear identity, the play-calling is subpar, the offensive line has been problematic, and Patrick Mahomes has been inconsistent, particularly when throwing downfield.
Andy Reid is one of the most accomplished coaches in football history, but he has been a liability in recent weeks. While I'm not an "establish the run" guy, the Chiefs need to be a more balanced offense, especially in the second half when leading. This would help protect Patrick Mahomes and make the offense less predictable.
Sunday was the perfect microcosm of these issues. On two straight drives in the second half, while up by 14 points, they repeatedly failed to manage the clock effectively. On the first drive, three consecutive incompletions and just 26 seconds of the clock ticked off. On the second drive, three consecutive incompletions and just 21 seconds of the clock ticked off. This sequence was unacceptable.
While the Chiefs are certainly capable of turning things around in the playoffs, that possibility seems increasingly less likely as the regular season goes on. If they continue to struggle on offense, they'll immediately lose in the playoffs, even with home-field advantage.