When Patrick Mahomes’ pass clanged off Travis Kelce’s hands and into the waiting arms of Houston Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, it felt like a representation of the end. The play symbolized the unceremonious and disappointing conclusion of the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2025 season, a campaign that has largely been unceremonious and disappointing. Additionally, when the Texans celebrated on the field, it felt as if the Chiefs’ dynastic and unprecedented run—which included three championships and five trips to the Super Bowl in six years—was all but over.
The math would also show this, as Kansas City has just a 12 percent chance at a postseason berth with four games remaining in the season. Even if they win Sunday’s matchup against the Chargers, that number would rise to just 17 percent. With a loss, the Chiefs would, for all intents and purposes, be eliminated from playoff contention, as according to NFL.com their chances would drop below 1 percent.
While it’s not a foregone conclusion that a loss on Sunday would eliminate the Chiefs, there is a set of scenarios that would make the three-time defending AFC champions’ season ending on January 4 an official reality. If the Buffalo Bills were to defeat the New England Patriots, the Jacksonville Jaguars were to beat the New York Jets, and the Houston Texans were to beat the Arizona Cardinals, the Chiefs would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. While the matchup between Buffalo and New England is a coin flip (and a possible AFC Championship preview), the Jaguars and Texans defeating three-win ball clubs at home is very likely.
Additionally, if one of the aforementioned playoff contenders were to lose their matchup but the Indianapolis Colts upset the Seattle Seahawks on the road, this would still end the Chiefs’ season if they were to lose. The bottom line is that a Chiefs win on Sunday would keep the season alive for another week, while a loss could very well eliminate them from postseason contention.
In a way, it is somewhat fitting that potentially the last game the Chiefs enter while mathematically alive is against the Chargers, whose 27–21 win over Kansas City in Brazil set the tone for this trying season. Both the numerical probabilities and the Chiefs’ play since the start of November have many Chiefs fans ready to mail it in. However, the set of scenarios that would need to take place for Kansas City to make the playoffs is not far-fetched.
A loss could end the Kansas City Chiefs’ season, but a narrow set of realistic outcomes keeps their playoff hopes alive.
Strangely enough, the most difficult scenario would be for the Chiefs to win their final four games, as the 2025 version of this team has not shown the consistency needed to win that many contests consecutively. The longest winning streak of the Chiefs’ season was three games, from Week 6 to Week 8. While they earned an impressive 30–17 victory over a playoff-caliber Lions team in Week 6, the following two wins came over the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders, who are a combined 5–21 on the season.
The Chiefs’ final four games are split, with two at home and two on the road. Fortunately, the road contests are against the Raiders and Tennessee Titans—arguably the league’s two worst teams. Meanwhile, the games in Kansas City come against the Chargers this Sunday and the Denver Broncos on Christmas night. Both teams are playoff-caliber and have previously defeated the Chiefs this season. If the Chiefs defeat their divisional rivals at home and take care of business against the NFL’s bottom feeders on the road, they would have done their part to earn a playoff berth.
Next comes the part where Kansas City would need help to get in. While it’s never fun to rely on other teams for your own gain, that is the position the Chiefs have put themselves in this season. First, they would need the Chargers to fall apart down the stretch. Of course, that would start with the Chiefs beating them on Sunday, but it wouldn’t end there. While the Chargers’ 9–4 record appears impressive on paper, they have several apparent weaknesses. The most obvious has been their porous offensive line, due to season-ending injuries suffered by starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Despite their win over the Eagles last Monday, the Chargers’ front five allowed quarterback Justin Herbert to be sacked seven times by Philadelphia’s defense. Herbert himself has not been at 100 percent health, as he is currently playing through a broken left hand.
In addition to the Chiefs beating them this week, Los Angeles would need to lose at least one of their next two games, which are against the Dallas Cowboys on the road and the Texans at home. The Texans matchup in Week 17 is particularly problematic for the Chargers, as Houston’s top-ranked defense by both points and yards would present an unfavorable matchup. Lastly, the Chiefs would then need the Chargers to lose in Denver in the final week of the regular season, another plausible scenario. While the Chargers handed the Broncos their most recent loss in Week 3, Denver’s ferocious pass rush—which has accumulated a league-leading 55 sacks—going up against the Chargers’ poor offensive line could spell trouble for the Bolts. If this were to play out in the Chiefs’ favor, both teams would finish 10–7, with Kansas City owning the tiebreaker.
The Chargers aren’t the only team Kansas City needs to fall apart down the stretch, as Chiefs fans should also root against the Colts over the next four weeks. Unlike the Chargers, the Chiefs were able to beat Indianapolis this season (their only win since Week 8), but the Colts still hold a two-game lead in the AFC standings. Indianapolis’ season has taken a drastic turn, as after a blazing 7–1 start, they have lost four of their last five contests. This past Sunday, the Colts lost more than just a game to the Jaguars, as starting quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending torn Achilles tendon.
With backup Anthony Richardson on injured reserve with an eye injury and third-stringer Riley Leonard sustaining a knee injury, the Colts made one of the most shocking moves of the season by signing 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement. Rivers, whose most recent NFL action came on January 9, 2021, will be facing a slew of difficult defenses in his unexpected return. The Colts’ next four opponents are the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans, who boast the second, eighth, eleventh, and first-ranked defenses by points allowed, respectively. While Rivers’ return is an intriguing storyline, it is difficult to see he and Indianapolis’ offense faring well against that level of competition. The Colts losing out is well within the realm of possibility and would greatly benefit the Chiefs’ playoff hopes.
The Chiefs have endured, by a wide margin, the worst and most disappointing season of the Patrick Mahomes era in 2025. While they have had their moments, by and large, this team has looked nothing like a Super Bowl contender throughout the year. One could argue that they aren’t even deserving of a playoff berth, given how they’ve performed in must-win contests against Denver, Dallas, and Houston. They also made crucial errors in late-game situations that resulted in losses to Philadelphia and Jacksonville. While things appear bleak in Chiefs Kingdom, a win on Sunday would reignite some hope that they can make something out of this season. A lot would need to go their way to reach the postseason, but those scenarios are more likely than one might think.