The NFL Draft is less than a month away, and teams are getting closer and closer to finalizing their draft boards. The draft is its own living and breathing entity; 32 teams have their own needs, strategies, and philosophies that end up deciding the future of their roster and hundreds of young men's lives.
No night is more anticipated in the NFL Draft than the first round, all eyes will turn to Green Bay as 32 picks come off the board. Chiefs fans will likely have to wait hours for their selection at pick 31. While the first round is always unpredictable, there is some data that can help us narrow down the players the Chiefs might select.
Andy Reid has been the key deciding factor in the Chiefs' draft for thirteen years now. While Brett Veach has only had seven drafts under his belt as a general manager, that's enough of a data set for us to come to some conclusions about their draft history.
For this data set, we examined the Chiefs' first-round selections since 2012 when Andy Reid was hired. We examined player age when drafted, positional value, relative athletic score, and if the player played in a Power 5 conference for most of their college career.
It's also worth noting that the Chiefs have had several drafts without first-round selections: they traded out of the first to select Chris Jones, and they traded first-round picks to move up for Patrick Mahomes and to acquire Frank Clark and Orlando Brown Jr.
Player | Age | RAS Score | Power 5 | Premium Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Fisher | 22 | 9.82 | No | Yes |
Dee Ford | 23 | 8.04 | Yes | Yes |
Marcus Peters | 22 | 7.23 | Yes | Yes |
Patrick Mahomes | 22 | 8,22 | Yes | Yes |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 21 | 5.44 | Yes | No |
Trent McDuffie | 22 | 9.48 | Yes | Yes |
George Karlaftis | 21 | 9.24 | Yes | Yes |
Felix Anudike- Uzomah | 21 | 8.73 | Yes | Yes |
Xavier Worthy | 20 | 9.41 | Yes | Yes |
What does this data tell us?
Of the nine first-round picks the Chiefs have made in the Andy Reid era, the Chiefs have never selected a player 24 years or older. This is likely an organizational philosophy as player age can factor into several things, such as physical development, level of competition, and also leads to a younger player extending at the end of their rookie contract.
It just means more when an 18-year-old Xavier Worthy had 981 yards and 12 touchdowns in the Big 12. Also, players who are drafted at the age of 24 or 25 will likely be close to thirty by the time they are extended on a new contract, increasing the risk of injury and regression.
The Chiefs also seem to prefer players who have played against a higher level of competition. Eric Fisher was the only player drafted without Power Five conference experience. Fisher was also a unique circumstance, being the number one overall pick in a historically bad draft.
So if the prospect isn't playing in the SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, or Pac-12, they likely won't be a first-round pick for the Chiefs.
The Clyde Edwards-Helaire selection really does look like the head scratcher in this data set. he was by far the worst athlete they selected (5.44 relative athletic score) and was the only non-premium position selected.
It's not surprising that the pick was not the success they had hoped for. Generally, the Chiefs draft average to above average athletes at premium positions (quarterback, wide receiver, tackle, edge rusher, and corner).
What does this mean for 2025?
Stating the obvious here: the Chiefs could break their trends on draft night, and that becomes the outlier. Maybe they select a poor testing athlete, an older prospect, or a player who wasn't in a top conference, but that would break their trends over the last fifteen years. Surprisingly, there are still lots of players who fit the template of Chiefs' first-round pick. It's easier to look at players who do not fit the Chiefs' normal draft profile.
Darius Alexander, IDL, Toledo- Alexander will turn 25 before his first snap of NFL football. He also played in the MAC conference, making him an unlikely 1st round pick for the Chiefs
Grey Zabel, IOL, North Dakota State- Besides the fact that Zabel profiles on the inside, only at the next level. Playing at North Dakota State would be the 1st non-power five conference player the Chiefs have drafted in the 1st round since Eric Fisher
Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina- Revel coming off a torn ACL already makes him a risky pick in the first round. He's also a fifth-year senior who played at East Carolina in the American Athletic Conference. Making him an unlikely fit for the Chiefs.
Tyler Booker, IOL, Alabama- Booker has received glowing reviews from scouts and teams about his leadership and the tape speaks for itself. However, his 4.03 relative athletic score would be a bit low.
Darien Porter, CB, Iowa State- Porter was a standout at the NFL combine and put together a nice season for Iowa State. However at age 24 breaking out in your 6th year of college football isn't what the Chiefs prioritize in the first round.
While there certainly are many names that do fit the parameters here are some names that we view as high caliber fits for the Chiefs at pick 31: Nic Scourton, Walter Nolen, Luther Burden, Trey Amos, Jaylin Noel, Jayden Higgins and Derrick Harmon.
The Chiefs have done a nice job of filling out their roster so they don't have to take a particular position this year. Their selection in the first round will ultimately come down to who they view as the best player on their board and that's a great place to be this time of year.
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