Contenders or pretenders? AFC pecking order is starting to reveal itself

Early AFC surprises and struggles are already reshaping the conference race and altering the path to the top seed.
Philadelphia Eagles v Kansas City Chiefs - NFL 2025
Philadelphia Eagles v Kansas City Chiefs - NFL 2025 | Jamie Squire/GettyImages

After what felt like a moneyline Week 1, the AFC outside of Kansas City went into Week 2 feeling decent about themselves. That story stuck for a handful of contenders, but for a troubled few, the story was much different and could spell a season derailed before it even started.

The Los Angeles Chargers walked into Las Vegas and continued their early dominance against their AFC West companions. The Chargers did what teams are supposed to do—beat the Raiders—so no gold stars here. Compare that with a Raiders team that has received, to this point, some undeserved hype this year. Whether it’s Geno Smith behind center, Pete Carroll on the sidelines, or Ashton Jeanty between the tackles, their play has been uninspiring.

Now for the Broncos, who in Week 1 managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, flipped the script and found a way to lose despite a 72.9% chance of winning the game before the first field goal attempt. After a (totally correct) leverage penalty was called, the Colts got another crack at it and sent the Broncos packing. Despite the devastating loss, Bo Nix had a turnaround game with three touchdowns, and the offense seemed to be clicking. Uninspiring, yes, but not a harbinger of what is to come; the Broncos will win games.

Early AFC surprises and struggles are already reshaping the conference race and altering the path to the top seed.

Now for the moment everyone has been waiting for: the Kansas City Chiefs welcomed the Eagles into town and gave another showing that left fans scratching their heads. A tight loss coupled with a handful of plays that “could have been,” the Chiefs were right there—just like they were two weeks ago in Brazil. While countless fans plead that this is merely an overreaction and that all will be corrected in due time, this is the regular season, and due time is happening right now.

Through two games, Mahomes stands in the middle of the pack in yards, yards per game, and touchdowns. Small sample size? Yes. But we can’t deny that something has felt off early in this campaign, and the Chiefs will get another opportunity to right the ship in Week 3 against the Giants.

Looking around the AFC, it’s easy to spot the teams that have taken steps to land atop the conference. Through two weeks, we have seen some teams continue their ascent and others take a drastic step back.

The Bengals, now Joe Burrow-less for the next three months, have to wonder if being 2-0 is worth it. Jake Browning, while a reliable backup who spelled Burrow during injuries in 2023, is no MVP-caliber player. It is difficult to see a world where the Bengals even win their division, let alone maintain any sort of relevance in a deep playoff run. With tilts against the Lions, Bills, Packers, and Ravens coming during Burrow’s absence, it’s hard to imagine him rejoining a team looking to add their leader to a long playoff run. Until further notice, consider the Bengals out of contention.

The Ravens continued their dominance against the once again hapless Browns. Winning by four scores, Lamar Jackson dominated through the air. The Ravens defense took control and limited the Browns through the air and on the ground. Allowing 199 passing yards and 115 rushing yards, the Ravens showed no mercy and signaled to the rest of the conference that they won’t stoop to the level of lesser opponents or get caught in grudge matches below their weight. Particularly in the AFC North, the Ravens are the team to beat and should continue to be a force in the conference.

The Buffalo Bills took on the hapless Jets in Week 2 and, much like the Ravens, weren’t going to succumb to the upset against a lesser opponent. Although Justin Fields left early for New York with a concussion, it’s hard to believe four quarters of Fields would have impacted the outcome in any way. It was the ground attack that led the way for Buffalo, with James Cook notching 132 yards and two touchdowns. Josh Allen seemed to settle into an Alex Smith–style “game manager” role for this matchup, which, while odd, doesn’t mean much for last year’s MVP moving forward.

The Bills maintain a stranglehold on the AFC East and will be contending for the top spot in the conference as the season rolls along.