One of the most hyped players out of the Kansas City Chiefs' draft and preseason has been Cyrus Allen, the fifth-round receiver out of Cincinnati. Allen, who also caught 86 balls between Louisiana Tech and Texas A&M, was hyped after minicamp footage and a few bright spots in all three preseason games.
Allen has been ascending since then, going from 10 snaps through the first four weeks to an average of 17 snaps per week in the last four games. He's still looking for the first touchdown of his career, but with five receptions for 65 yards across three games, he seemed to be gaining traction with Patrick Mahomes.
That ascension, one might call it, was cruising upward in terms of snap counts on offense, targets from Mahomes, more responsibility on special teams (he returned his first kickoff last week), and his average depth of target.
But now that Josh Downs has been saved from Daniel Jones and Indianapolis' slow destruction, what does that mean for the rookie who was just starting to hit his stride?
Downs and Allen have more in common than fans might realize
If there's one thing that Andy Reid loves, it's undersized receivers who love to zoom around the field. He's never been one to utilize the large receiver with big hands who brings down 50-50 throws, outside of two strong seasons with Terrell Owens and a midseason attempt with DeAndre Hopkins two seasons ago.
That's perfect for both Allen and Downs because it means they'll get a higher usage rate than they would elsewhere. Allen is 5'11", 180 pounds, while Downs is 5'9", 171 pounds. For reference, the average height of Kansas City's receiver room is 6 feet, 1.5 inches, with Jeff Caldwell (6'5") and Andrew Armstrong (6'4") tipping the scale against Xavier Worthy (5'11") and Jalen Royals (6'0").
Coming out of college, Allen and Downs also looked pretty similar. Allen ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash, while Downs ran a 4.48. Both came out of college known for their route-running abilities and middle-of-the-field dominance.
So far this season, Downs has played a heavy role in Indianapolis' slot position, playing 57.2% of the snaps from the slot, with 70% of passing plays featuring him starting his route from there (according to PFF). That's nearly identical to Allen's positioning so far this season, with 48 of his 84 total snaps on offense coming from the slot (57.1%).
Josh Downs could threaten Allen's special teams opportunities
On top of all of this, Downs also has a lot of experience returning kicks, which Allen just started doing for Kansas City last week. Before this year, Allen returned 12 kickoffs at Louisiana Tech for 247 yards (20.6 yards per return) but did not attempt any while he was at Texas A&M or Cincinnati.
Downs, on the other hand, brought back 26 kickoffs at UNC during his sophomore and junior years, racking up only 286 yards (11.1 YPR). But since being drafted in the third round back in 2023, Downs has returned two kickoffs (only during his rookie year) and 32 punts for 312 yards (9.8 YPR).
Hopefully, since kickoff and punt returns have significantly higher chances of injury, Downs is not stuck returning kicks while he learns Reid's famously complex playbook. But if he were to take more time ramping up on offense, then Allen could use that to his advantage before Downs begins taking his snaps from the slot position.
Andy Reid's history with rookie receivers offers little encouragement
Allen's usage rates will likely go down unless injuries persist above him on the depth chart, but that just means it's another excuse as to why receivers in Reid's systems don't typically start their careers off very strong.
There are obviously some exceptions, most recently Rashee Rice's rookie year in 2023, when he broke the franchise's rookie records in receptions (79), receiving touchdowns (seven), postseason receptions (26), and postseason receiving yards (262), as well as most receiving yards in a playoff game by a rookie (130 vs. Miami).
Other than that, the history of rookie receivers in Reid's system is a sign that Allen was never going to have a true breakout anytime soon.
Receivers have had plenty of hype coming straight from the draft into Mahomes' huddle and Reid's offense. Guys like Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman built up some expectations in college and in the preseason, but both disappointed like nearly every rookie receiver before Allen.
For example, Worthy came into the league known as the fastest man in the NFL, and people believed he would immediately become the epitome of Tyreek Hill mixed with Tavon Austin with a dash of Roy Williams.
But at the end of his rookie year, Worthy amassed 638 receiving yards along with 104 rushing yards, totaling 742 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns during the regular season. This would actually end up being one of the best rookie years for any receiver under Andy Reid.
For reference, Moore only had 250 receiving yards and 24 rushing yards his rookie season two years prior. Hardman had 538 receiving yards and 17 rushing yards his rookie year in 2019. He also had six touchdowns.
Other than that, there has not been much to write home about with rookie pass-catchers in Reid's system. Jehu Chesson (remember that guy?) had two catches for 18 yards in 2017. Chris Conley had 199 yards and a touchdown in 2015. Albert Wilson had 260 yards during Reid and Alex Smith's second season together.
Cyrus Allen's growing role faces an uncertain future
Compare that to Allen's five catches for 65 yards so far this season, on pace for 138 receiving yards after a full 17 games. That pace is set largely because of Allen's complete lack of usage during the first four weeks, which provided him two targets for zero yards.
Based on the last four games, which included all of his production in Weeks 6–8, it doesn't get a whole lot better, as it totals out to 16 receptions for 211 yards. And that's before the addition of Downs.
Now where will Allen head? Will his over-the-middle usage shrink with Downs taking over the slot position? Or will Allen receive more and more opportunities on the big plays downfield, much like Mahomes tried to do against the Jets this past Sunday?
Either way, Allen's ascension in his current role might take a backseat until Reid and Eric Bieniemy find a way to meld the two receivers into a competent unit. Could that mean Allen is undervalued and overlooked heading into next season, or could it lead to a lack of confidence like some of his predecessors?
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