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Chiefs pass defense could keep them from earning the AFC's top seed

By Lyle Graversen

Nov 29, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (89) scores a touchdown as Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Joshua Williams (2) and safety Chamarri Conner (27) chase during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Nov 29, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (89) scores a touchdown as Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Joshua Williams (2) and safety Chamarri Conner (27) chase during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images
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The Kansas City Chiefs have played twelve games and it's becoming increasingly hard to write new and creative introductions to these pieces about them. I always feel the need to start by pointing out that they are the 2 time defending Super Bowl champions and are tied for the best record in the NFL with an 11-1 record. Then that is always followed by a "but..." where I point out that there are reasons to be concerned despite those impressive accomplishments.

That's not to say that I am completely doom and gloom about KC's outlook this season. I think there are signs of the offense coming around. Isiah Pacheco is back from injury (although his debut didn't lead to a productive run game last week), DJ Humphries will hopefully solidify the struggling left tackle position, and there are reports that Marquise "Hollywood" Brown will be back soon. There's even a little hope for KC's pass rush as Charles Omenihu returned last week and the Chiefs responded with a 3 sack game.

So with the caveat that I still have hope for KC to complete their quest for the NFL's first Super Bowl three-peat, it's time for the "but...". This week that "but..." is once again about the Chiefs pass defense. Just last week I wrote about how the pass defense had dropped off big time in the past 5-6 games. If you haven't read that piece yet, I encourage you to give it a quick read because it addresses the reasons why it has dropped off. I'm not going to rehash that here. I followed that up with a piece on the handful of veteran cornerbacks that are out there that KC could sign if they wanted to add a corner for the home stretch.

My immediate concern is that KC's struggling pass defense could cost them the top seed in the AFC and the bye that comes with it. The Buffalo Bills are only one game behind the Chiefs as I write this Sunday afternoon prior to their game against the San Francisco 49ers. Since the Bills handed the Chiefs their only current loss, the Chiefs can't afford to fall into a tie with them in the standings. The Chiefs still have four of their final five games against teams that are currently in the AFC playoff hunt, the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos.

That's a tough stretch, with their only game against a team with a losing record being against the Cleveland Browns who have a pass rusher in Myles Garrett that will likely give whomever is playing left tackle absolute nightmares and Jameis Winston at quarterback that won't hesitate for a second to chuck the ball all over the field against KC's struggling secondary.

Over their last six games the Chiefs have faced Gardner Minchew, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Josh Allen, Bryce Young, and Aidan O'Connell. While Mayfield and Allen have been top ten quarterbacks this season, the other four are all guys you would hope your pass defense could "get right" against as opposed to consistently struggling. Those six quarterbacks put up the following numbers against KC:

69.7% completions

7.4 yards per attempt

242.8 yards per game

10 touchdowns to just 1 interception

Compare that to what those same six quarterbacks have collectively done on the season (not counting Sunday's games):

65.8% completions

6.8 yards per attempt

220.9 yards per game

76 touchdowns to 38 interceptions (2 to 1 ratio)

It's bad enough that KC has allowed those quarterbacks to put up much better numbers than their season averages, but their coverage seems to be getting worse, not better. The last two weeks the Chiefs allowed Bryce Young and Aidan O'Connell to put up a combined 603 yards (8.6 yards per attempt) with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.

The biggest games remaining on KC's schedule include matchups against Justin Herbert, CJ Stroud, and Russell Wilson. Those guys are all significantly more dangerous than Young and O'Connell. You can even make a strong argument that their other two games against Bo Nix and Jameis Winston are worse matchups for the pass defense as well.

I still believe in the Kansas City Chiefs. I still believe in Patrick Mahomes. I think there are logical reasons to believe the offense will be the best version of itself we've seen this season come playoff time. The one "but...", the potential Achilles' heel for this team right now is the pass defense. Steve Spagnuolo needs to do whatever he can to sure things up, because otherwise it could end up costing the Chiefs the top seed in the AFC and the bye that comes with it.