A long, long time ago, I wrote about the improbability of the Kansas City Chiefs drafting two of the greatest tight ends ever. At the end of that story, I asked a provocative question: could recently drafted Noah Gray be next?
I know, I know, you can laugh at me and roast me in the comments all you want. I was young, naive, and hopeful. But to Gray's credit, he's still on the Chiefs roster five years later. He may not have developed into the next Travis Kelce, but staying with one team does say something. And as of right now, he's still under contract for another two seasons.
All things considered, this is pretty surprising considering that Gray has never cracked 500 yards in a single season in his career. So what exactly does his long-term value look like with the Chiefs?
It could be that given his increasing cap hit this season and next (almost $7 million each year), he could just straight up become a cap casualty. When he signed his extension in 2024, he was coming off three straight seasons of steadily increasing his catches and yardage totals. It made some sense that the team might have thought he was finally coming into his own.
But then last year his numbers cratered, and he had less than 200 yards. Part of that may be because of the concussion he suffered in Week 12, but he only missed a couple of games because of it. As one of my fellow writers noted, it wasn't a very good look.
Alternatively, they could keep Gray on for one more season, especially if Travis Kelce chooses to retire. First, they would need someone to fill the role, and bodies are scarce at the moment. Second, maybe having TE1 status is all Gray needs to finally break out. Unlikely, but maybe?
There's also the curious case of Jared Wiley, who suffered a torn ACL during this past season but should be ready for Week 1. If somehow Wiley has a similar experience to Kelce (who missed his rookie season, too) and climbs the roster, Gray could find his value tanking even more.
Finally, it seems highly unlikely that the Chiefs would find a trade partner for Gray. Good tight ends are hard to come by, but I don't anticipate anyone clamoring for Noah. That means the Chiefs are solely in control of his fate. We may find out sooner rather than later just how much they value their former fifth-round pick.