The Kansas City Chiefs are sitting at an awkward spot in the NFL Draft. They finished with a rare top-10 selection for this regime. However, this class is full of non-premium greats at the top of the player rankings. Even Chiefs general manager Brett Veach mentioned at the Scouting Combine that "if we were just at four or five, we'd be exactly where we want to be."
Simply put, Kansas City may wind up in a doomsday scenario at pick nine overall. All of their best four options could be well gone before that ninth slot. In the end, that makes the likelihood of the Chiefs trading back and out of that spot entirely easy to envision.
If the draft board falls in an undesirable way, Kansas City cannot just force a selection at nine. It definitely feels like some national draft analysts have done just that with offensive line picks over the last few weeks. The value has to be right if K.C. is picking at this particular position for the first time in a while.
Laying out the doomsday scenario Chiefs could find themselves in
After the Combine results, it feels as though none of Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, or Jeremiyah Love will last to pick nine. The Chiefs do not need Love anymore after signing Kenneth Walker III. However, the New Orleans Saints, picking right in front of Kansas City at eight, also signed a free agent running back to a huge deal. They will not take Love, either, leading to them possibly sniping the Chiefs of what they desire.
Meanwhile, the pass-rushing duo of David Bailey and Rueben Bain Jr. are arguably Kansas City's top two targets. Bailey appears to be going earlier than the ninth pick in most mock drafts. Bain Jr. has generally lasted more often into Kansas City's range. Yet Bain Jr. could still be scooped up right ahead of the Chiefs at pick seven or eight—another potential pitfall in that exact draft position for the Chiefs.
Carnell Tate is viewed as the name that will be the first wide receiver off the board. If they do not go defensive end, the Chiefs should not hesitate if Tate is still there. He would give Kansas City a skill set that they have missed at wide receiver over the last handful of years. Tate makes some sense for any of the teams picking from six to eight. Specifically, the Cleveland Browns at six may lean wide receiver with their first pick after signing multiple offensive linemen in free agency.
Safety Caleb Downs is the ultimate wild card in how the board plays out for K.C. Many teams wait on safeties, even if they are one of the top three players in the class. We saw that play out for Kyle Hamilton coming out of Notre Dame. His talent was not enough to save him from dropping to the 14th overall pick because of positional value. Enduring the same fate cannot be ruled out for Downs.
The Chiefs could do worse than picking Downs. It would still be surprising to see Veach and Kansas City lean toward a non-premium pick in the top 10. And they just found a bargain signing at safety in Alohi Gilman. Downs is the biggest wrench that could affect what is there at nine and would test the Chiefs' pure philosophies in that draft slot.
Deeper position groups could urge a trade back for K.C.
Say Reese, Love, Styles, Bain Jr., Bailey, Downs, and Tate are gone—the next best option for Kansas City looks to be an offensive lineman. In that situation, surely there is a team or two that views that blocker as a piece worth trading up for, especially when that outside team would move up for an offensive lineman in the top 10.
Kansas City would benefit by adding more picks to the war chest. If that means the Chiefs move down from pick nine in that scenario, it is almost a no-brainer to trade back. That is conceivably true no matter how far back Kansas City moves from the ninth selection.
The Chiefs are going to look to beef up premium spots after spending heavily on non-premium positions in free agency. That leads to wide receiver and defensive end remaining as the greatest weaknesses on the roster.
Defensive end and wide receiver are seen as deeper position groups in this draft class anyway. Many talent evaluators and general managers have echoed that sentiment, including Veach.
Missing out on Tate, Bain Jr., or Bailey would be disappointing. There will be solace in knowing the depth of those positions later in the draft, nonetheless. If they slide back from nine in any move, there are likely to be plenty of capable wide receiver and defensive end options sitting in the middle third of the first round.