Generally speaking, it is lonely at the top. That's the age-old adage ceremoniously touted by those lucky enough to reach the peak of their respective professions. In team sports, you obviously celebrate the monumental achievement of reaching that crest with your teammates and coaches—not such a lonely feeling, right? The loneliness comes when those players from those teams experience what the Chiefs have experienced over the course of the last three seasons.
In the first episode of The Kingdom (if you haven't watched it, ask a friend for their Disney+ login, or just check out Scott Loring's fantastic breakdown of the series on our site), Chris Jones can be heard reminiscing about how "everyone loved us," referring to the beginning of the Chiefs' reign of NFL dominance.
Now? Not so much. The top is lonely, but the NFL has a unique way of giving teams at the top companionship back in the middle of the pack sooner than they often anticipate. Every season, multiple teams catch lightning in a bottle and have outstanding years despite expectations to the contrary—overachievers, if you will.
These results can come from numerous outlets: a core of players who buy into what their coach is preaching and perform out of their league, favorable scheduling, an inordinate number of matchup advantages from week to week, injury luck, or even a few balls bouncing their way that could have easily gone in the opponent’s favor.
A few NFL contenders from last season could be headed for a surprising fall.
The nature of NFL scheduling lends itself to certain teams having bounce-back years if the injury bug bit them the year prior. Each year, teams from the NFC and AFC face off against opponents from their respective conferences who finished in the same place in their divisions. Take the Chiefs, for example—does it feel like we play the Ravens and Bills every year? That's because all three are currently running their respective divisions.
There was a time in Chiefs history when it felt like the Browns and Bills (when they were also bad) were the only games you saw the Chiefs playing at noon on Sunday. We get the same repetition now; it’s just in the late afternoon and primetime slots.
NFL teams also play a revolving door of opposing divisions both in conference and out of conference. One year, a team could play a division that's considerably down (think 2024 NFC South), and the next they could face one that's historically competitive (2024 NFC North, for example). It's a crapshoot.
While teams do have an idea going into the season who will be good and who could be down from an opponent's perspective, you never truly know what you're going to get from teams outside your division. Hell, sometimes you don't even know what to expect from those in your division. Who would have thought Bo Nix would lead the Broncos to the playoffs in year one?
Some teams in 2024 benefited from a weak schedule and truly catapulted themselves to heights that, in some cases, were expected (Detroit), but in most cases were not. Here are the teams I feel will take the biggest step backward in 2025.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings crushed it by all standards in the 2024 season record-wise, finishing 14-3 in the regular season with a defense that looked ferocious throughout. The catch? Minnesota played four playoff teams in seven games in 2024 and went 3-4 against them, including an embarrassing 27-9 loss to the Rams in the Wild Card round that followed an even more embarrassing 31-9 loss to the Lions in Week 18 to seal their Wild Card fate.
Minnesota trades the AFC South slate of Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville from a year ago for the AFC North buzzsaw of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland (lol) in 2025. They'll also face the Chargers, Eagles, Commanders, and, naturally, the Lions and Packers twice. They'll do all of this while returning 51.7% of their offensive starters from a year ago with a first-year quarterback who isn't necessarily known for his throwing prowess. 2025 could be a big step back for Minnesota.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been a bit of a media darling, along with the Denver Broncos, heading into the 2025 season. Folks who are looking for a different flavor other than the Kansas City Chiefs in the West—of which there are now many—look for the Chargers to compete for the division championship in 2025. While the Chargers’ schedule on the surface doesn't look overly concerning, some nuggets could set the Bolts back a couple of steps.
First, the Chargers are essentially foregoing one of their home games for a season-opening affair in Brazil against the Chiefs. The fact that the NFL considers these "home" games for any team is a bit much. This may not be mathematically possible, and I'm not going to put pen to paper before I write it, but shouldn't both teams just consider it an away game? I don't know. Moving on.
Los Angeles also has the task of traveling to the Eastern time zone three times for noon kickoffs. That's 10 a.m. in California. You have to expect that to bite them in at least a couple of those games, albeit they are against the Giants, Jags, and Dolphins. Add these elements with Rashawn Slater being out for the year—a massive loss—and you have to think Harbaugh and the boys might be in for a big letdown.
Detroit LIons
Yes, they get Aidan Hutchinson back. Yes, there are reports that he is abusing opposing players in joint practices. The Lions were a unit last year and are again favored to win the NFC North and are right behind Philadelphia as favorites to win the NFC. Jahmyr Gibbs looks like a monster in camp, and Jared Goff has a ton of weapons at his disposal on the offensive side of the ball. What's not to like?
Well, to start, their division is arguably the most difficult in football. The Packers aren't going anywhere, the Bears will likely be improved offensively with Ben Johnson at the helm of the franchise, and the Vikings will still be tough, even if they aren’t 14-3 again. The Lions have to deal with the retirement of Frank Ragnow, a mainstay on their offensive line, and have a rookie starting next to Graham Glasgow as the team’s new center.
Detroit not only plays seven games outdoors in 2025, but they also have a grind to start the season. The Lions’ first seven games are: at Green Bay, vs. Chicago, at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland, at Cincinnati, at Kansas City, and vs. Tampa. There's a very real world where they are 3-4 after the first seven games. They were 15-2 last year. A step back seems almost inevitable, even if it isn't a very big one.
Kansas City Chiefs
This is so hard for me to type—not just because I love the Kansas City Chiefs, but because I have been watching The Kingdom and I'm ready to run through a wall and watch a 20-0 Super Bowl redemption run.
But let's all be honest with ourselves: going 15-2 in the manner in which the Chiefs did in 2024 is not something that can be easily duplicated. So many things went the Chiefs’ way in one-score games a year ago that it is nearly impossible to imagine those breaks going the team's way again in 2025.
Couple that with the division being inevitably improved from top to bottom, and you're bound to have a couple more losses in 2025 than we saw in 2024. The offense should be improved. The secondary leaves a little to be desired on the defensive side of the ball, and there are some unknown elements up front.
That's about all I've got. It pains me to include the Chiefs in this. But 13-4 isn't bad, even if it’s not 15-2. The Chiefs will still win the AFC West and would still be my pick to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 60. I wouldn’t consider that “down” by any means. Hopefully, Patrick Mahomes reads this, sees the Chiefs on this list, and adds it to the bulletin board. I would expect some sort of Super Bowl paraphernalia if that happens.