Chiefs fans owe Andy Reid more credit for his 4th down guts

Imagine you’re standing on the Kansas City Chiefs sideline. You’ve got a headset on and a playsheet in front of you. You’re calling the shots. It’s 4th & 1 in a tied game against a playoff rival. What do you do? Do you go for it? What if the ball is on your own 36-yard line—what then?

That’s the situation Andy Reid faced early in the third quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. He opted to go for it, a decision that didn’t pay off. But if Reid is in the same situation in the future, I hope he makes the same choice again.

4th & GO

Statistics and data analysis both back Reid’s decision to go for it. Last season, the Chiefs were one of the best teams in the league when it came to fourth and short. Kansas City successfully converted 90.9 percent of 4th & 1 tries in 2024—10 conversions on 11 attempts—tied for second best in the NFL.

That success had already carried over into the new season. Kansas City faced two 4th & 1 situations in Week 1 against the LA Chargers, picking up first downs on both. That included a run play from their own 43-yard line—right on the edge of field goal range and just seven yards upfield compared to the stopped run against Philadelphia. The Chiefs handed the ball to Kareem Hunt, who ran for six yards comfortably. Good decision.

Six plays later, it was another 4th & 1. This time, the Chiefs opted to pass—a six-yard toss to Hunt with a play design built off the 4th-down run. Again, it picked up six yards and another first down. Another good decision. They were decisions backed up by data. Against the Eagles, the Chiefs followed that same advice again.

According to ESPN Analytics, the numbers say a team should always go for it on 4th & 1, regardless of where they are on the field. rbsdm.com, a website that analyzes NFL data including fourth down probabilities and whether a team should kick or go for it, supported the decision too. Its model gave the Chiefs a 69 percent chance of converting—a high likelihood and worth taking a chance on.

Of course, it didn’t pay off. But the probability data says those decisions will work far more often than not, and because of that, the Chiefs should continue going for it on fourth down.

Clutch conversions

The Chiefs weren’t just one of the best teams in the league at converting on 4th & 1, they were one of the best teams at converting on fourth down period. Kansas City converted 70.6 percent of its fourth-down tries—12 of 17—which ranked third in the NFL, behind only Washington (87 percent) and Buffalo (72.7). The Chiefs are five-for-six (83.3 percent) on fourth downs this year.

When it comes to actually going for it on fourth down when they should, the Chiefs have been in the middle of the pack recently. Last year, rbsdm.com had the Chiefs ranked 11th with a go-rate of about 50 percent. Detroit had the highest go-rate of any team at over 70 percent. It was the first time in the last three seasons that Kansas City had been ranked above the league average in go rate. In 2022 the Chiefs ranked 30th, while in 2019 they were first in going for it when they should.

Shoot Your Shot

It’s odd seeing Reid criticized for being too aggressive against Philadelphia, considering something that’s been held against him over the years is that he isn’t aggressive often enough. The Chiefs have a superstar quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and a legendary offensive playmaker in Reid at their disposal—they should want to use those weapons as often as possible.

Is going for it on fourth down going to work 100 percent of the time? Of course not. Dropped passes can happen, missed blocks can happen, and sometimes the defense simply steps up and makes a play. But it will work far more often than not. The stats and the data tell us it will.

Just because a theoretically sound and statistically justified decision backfired once doesn’t mean the Chiefs shouldn’t do it again. Trust the data, trust the probability, trust Andy Reid, and trust Patrick Mahomes. Keep taking those shots on fourth down.