Let's flash back to February 8. On the confetti-covered field at Levi's Stadium, Kenneth Walker stood on a podium flanked by Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and head coach Mike Macdonald with the Lombardi Trophy in his hand. Walker had just been named the MVP of the Seahawks' 29-13 victory over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX due to his 135-yard rushing performance.
It wasn't known at the time, but this would be the final image of Walker in a Seahawks uniform, as the 26-year-old running back signed a three-year, $43.05 million contract with the Chiefs in the first hour of free agency this past March. While it was heavily believed that Walker could salvage a running game that was laughably bad in 2025, not even the most optimistic Chiefs fans could have foreseen his performance over these first five games.
Walker is the early favorite to win the Offensive Player of the Year award and is on a historic pace running the football. The Michigan State product's per-game averages over a full 17-game season have him on pace for 2,261 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. For context, the single-season rushing record is 2,105 yards, set by Eric Dickerson in 1984.
Tonight, Walker will return to the place he called home for four years to face the team he helped win its first championship in twelve years. Thanks in large part to Walker, Patrick Mahomes being at full health, a revamped defense, and Andy Reid adjusting his offensive scheme, the Chiefs are back to being the class of the AFC after a trying 2025 season. Of all of the AFC contenders, Kansas City has the fewest discernible weaknesses and has taken care of business against wildly inferior opponents in each of its last four games.
Seattle's elite defense masks a struggling offense
However, tonight's game in Seattle will be the toughest test faced by the 2026 Chiefs to this point. So far, this year's Seahawks team looks like a watered-down version of the team that won the Super Bowl in dominant fashion last year. Seattle's defense remains elite, as Macdonald's unit ranks second in defensive EPA/play, first in total EPA, second in success rate, and has yet to allow 1,000 passing yards on the season through six games. However, the other side of the ball has been an issue for Seattle and is the primary catalyst for the team already matching its loss total from last season. The Seahawks' offense ranks 25th in EPA/play, 28th in total EPA, 20th in success rate, and third-to-last in rushing EPA, only ahead of the Raiders and Packers.
There are many factors that have contributed to this. For one, their offensive play-caller from a year ago, Klint Kubiak, is now leading a rebuild in Las Vegas. Additionally, Darnold has regressed significantly, as the Seahawks quarterback has thrown seven interceptions in just four full games and ranks 26th in QBR, one spot below Deshaun Watson. Perhaps the biggest change in offensive efficiency between this year and last is that one of their offensive engines, and the man who was the bell cow in their postseason run, will be on the opposing sideline tonight.
The Seahawks are more dangerous than their record suggests
The Chiefs have been a better team than the Seahawks to this point in the 2026 season, and their respective records would reflect that. However, a team is the most dangerous version of itself when it is at its most desperate, which is the current reality for Seattle. Sitting at 3-3, the Seahawks need to reel off a winning streak in order to repeat as NFC West champions, as the 49ers sit at 6-0 and beat them at Lumen Field two weeks ago. If the Seahawks drop their third straight to fall to 3-4, it would create a tense situation for the defending champs, and they could be in jeopardy of missing the postseason altogether.
Regardless of the end result, the Chiefs need to be prepared to see the best version of the Seahawks in tonight's game. For that reason, it would make leaving Seattle with a win all the more impressive. In the past calendar year, the Seahawks are 8-1 at Lumen Field, and their average margin of victory is 12.5 points. Through three games on their home field this season, Seattle has held opposing signal-callers to just 185 passing yards per game with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4-6.
It could also be argued that the Seahawks are a better team than their 3-3 record may indicate, as their current ranking of fifth in Super Bowl LXI odds could be evidence of that. In all three of their losses, Seattle has had a few individual plays go against them that, if the ball had bounced in a different direction, could have flipped the outcome. In their Week 5 loss to the 49ers, the normally sure-handed Jaxon Smith-Njigba mishandled a pass on the final drive that would've set up the Seahawks for a game-tying field goal. On the ensuing play, veteran receiver Cooper Kupp caught a pass and came within inches of securing a drive-extending first down. In their most recent outing in Denver on Thursday Night Football, Seattle's defense allowed just 34 yards in the second half and overtime combined, but a crucial Darnold interception in overtime helped seal the loss.
Seattle also has favorable advanced metrics despite its mediocre record, as its team ANY/A value ranks fourth across the NFL, one spot below the third-ranked Chiefs. While that ranking is heavily carried by its defense, which has a total value of 504.6, this is just one of the metrics that shows Seattle is better than its record indicates. While the Chiefs are an outstanding team, they have also taken advantage of an easy schedule to this point.
A win in Seattle would validate the Chiefs' perfect start
Four of the five teams the Chiefs have beaten this season are unlikely to qualify for the playoffs: the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders, and Los Angeles Chargers. The Colts are 2-4, just lost to a rancid Titans team at home, and fired their GM. The Dolphins are winless and are prime candidates to land the first overall pick in April. The Raiders are improved and trending in the right direction as a franchise but still have a ways to go to become true contenders. Lastly, the Chargers have been the laughingstock of the NFL through six weeks.
This is not to say that the Chiefs aren't a great team, as they've taken care of business in all four of these games. Also, I'd be doing a disservice if I didn't mention the Chiefs' 31-10 drubbing of a good Broncos team in Week 1. However, a primetime matchup in Seattle in front of the league's loudest fans is a step up in weight class from the Chargers attempting to play football last week.
If the Chiefs lose this game, it is far from the end of the world. It's a road non-conference matchup against a talented and motivated team, and everyone will lose a game at some point. However, if they pull off a massive road win without their top wide receiver and left tackle, it would be difficult to argue against the Chiefs being the best team in the NFL. And in that case, all would be right in the world.
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