Chiefs could turn pick 29 into gold if QB history repeats

In early March, the Chiefs made a blockbuster deal with the Rams, sending Trent McDuffie to LA in exchange for a first-round pick and three more selections between the 2026 and 2027 drafts. With an extra first-round pick, the Chiefs will have a lot of flexibility to make some draft-day moves, and we know Brett Veach is not afraid to move around on draft weekend.

Assuming the board does not fall the way the Chiefs want at the end of the first round, there will be suitors who may be looking to make a jump. If the Chiefs can play their cards right, it may be in their best interest to land their top prospect at nine and load up on Day 2 picks by getting out of pick 29 in the first round. One of the best ways for Kansas City to do this could be to take advantage of a thin QB class but a lot of QB-needy teams at the top of the second round.

Late in the first round, we often see QB-needy teams getting aggressive, looking to jump into the first round to land one of the top QBs in the class before it is too late. We have seen this several times in recent history, with the most well-known example being the Ravens trading up to land Lamar Jackson in 2018. Other examples include the Vikings' jump for Teddy Bridgewater and the Giants' jump for Jaxson Dart just last season.

We have also seen teams make small trade-ups in the first round to block late-round moves by aggressive QB-needy teams. In 2020, the Packers jumped up four spots to select Jordan Love, and in 2016, the Broncos traded up to stop the Chiefs from making the same jump to select Paxton Lynch.

Why do teams do this?

It's very simple. Having a quarterback on a rookie deal is one of the most valuable things in the NFL, as quarterback extensions are easily the most expensive of any position across the league. Adding a quarterback in the first round gives a team the potential to exercise a fifth-year option, something that is not available to draft picks after Day 1.

With this potential for an added year under a rookie contract, teams who are looking to add quarterback help are more inclined to make a jump into the end of the first round. This is especially true in a draft like this one, where there is only one quarterback worthy of being selected in the top 10, and a battle among several players for the title of QB2.

If there is a team who has Drew Allar, Ty Simpson, Cole Payton, or Carson Beck graded as a starter in the NFL, they could be inclined to make a move. The Chiefs' 29th pick is prime position for any of those teams to make the jump into the bottom of Round 1. On the other hand, the Chiefs will not value the fifth-year option as much as other teams who need a QB and could take advantage of the pool of talent on Day 2 of the draft.

Who could be willing to move up?

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals' QB situation is rocky, with Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew currently lined up to compete for the QB1 job. Brissett is seeking a pay increase and has not shown up for offseason activities, and Minshew is coming off a major knee injury. The Cardinals have hosted Ty Simpson, Drew Allar, and Carson Beck on top-30 visits, making them a strong suitor for the Chiefs on draft day.

Best trade offer: pick 34 and 104 to the Chiefs for 29

New York Jets

The Chiefs and Jets have already agreed on a trade involving a quarterback when the Chiefs acquired Justin Fields for a 2027 6th-round pick. The Jets' QB room is in a dire state, with Geno Smith leading the way for the 2026 season following another AFC West trade with the Raiders. Smith's contract expires next season, and they could be the perfect team to add a developmental QB like Drew Allar to sit for a year and learn the system before taking the reins next season.

Best trade offer: pick 33 and 44 to the Chiefs for 29 and a 2027 3rd

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers' QB room has still been left hanging in the balance, and with Aaron Rodgers still not ready to make a decision about his future, Pittsburgh may start getting antsy. With four picks on Day 2 of the draft, the Steelers have plenty of ammo to make a late jump for a quarterback. With all the weapons in their offense, if their coaching staff and front office like Ty Simpson and want to jump teams picking at the top of the second round, they could be pushing to make a deal.

Best trade offer: pick 53, 76, 85 and 161 to the Chiefs for 29 and 148

Other potential suitors: LA Rams, Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Chiefs will have options at the end of Day 1, and if they are interested in dropping down in the draft, there will be a lot of interest. The gold mine of this draft is on Day 2, and the Chiefs should actively be looking to stock up on picks in the second and third rounds of the draft. There are at least five teams who could have interest in adding a quarterback, and the Chiefs should be looking to take advantage of that at 29.

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