No matter who is favored and no matter who is starting, the Kansas City Chiefs have been subject to a trap-game loss in almost every single season since Andy Reid came to K.C. back in 2013. Shades of Christmas Day against Vegas or the slanderous verbiage from Chris Jones against the Matt Ryan-led Colts both come to mind.
Now the Chiefs, at 6-2, head to Atlanta, where the Falcons are 3-6 and in last place in the NFC South. The Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points despite being the road team, with a glaring hole at wide receiver that has been the subject of conversation all season long. That's the first sign of an inevitable trap game, one that Kansas City desperately needs to avoid if they want to keep their chances at the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the AFC West high.
What constitutes a trap game?
Not every loss is built equally, just like not every victory is achieved equally. Each score has its own pregame history, and each matchup usually contains surprise plays, big momentum swings, and mistakes. But quite a few of these surprise losses can be categorized as a "trap game."
Trap games happen when teams that are favored underperform in a litany of ways, usually blamed on the team looking ahead to future games that matter more or just a complacent bill of play calls that don't achieve what they normally do. Many could say that describes Kansas City these past few seasons to a T.
The Chiefs have a long history of trap-game losses
Games that come to mind include the Chiefs' loss at the Meadowlands back in mid-November of 2017. That's when Harrison Butker was the only one who scored for the Chiefs, thanks to Alex Smith tossing two interceptions in a rare post-bye-week loss for Andy Reid.
Kansas City, at 6-3 and coming off a bye, was a 13.5-point favorite over the 1-8 Giants, even on the road. They would lose 12-9 in overtime. That's a trap game.
Another major trap game in Reid's tenure in Kansas City was the infamous potty-mouth game that saw Mahomes and Reid lose despite being 5.5-point favorites. The potty-mouth incident, in which what Jones said has still never been revealed, gave the Colts a new set of downs, and they eventually scored the game-winning touchdown to win the game 20-17. That would end up being Indy's first win of the season, which eventually ended at 4-12-1 with Jeff Saturday as interim coach.
Trap games are a dime a dozen when looking through Reid's history, specifically in Kansas City. Seriously, every season has one game that infuriates fans and forces a reset in one way or another.
Losing to the 4-7 Jets in 2017 as 4.5-point favorites thanks to Bob Sutton's defense and Marcus Peters tossing a penalty flag into the stands. Christmas Day against the Raiders in 2023 as 11-point favorites, ruining Chiefs' fans' holiday vibes thanks to Vegas scoring two touchdowns in seven seconds.
Losing to the Packers in 2019 was an anomaly, mainly because KC opened as 3.5-point favorites but dropped to four-point dogs when Mahomes was ruled out with his dislocated kneecap. Still, Reid and backup QB Matt Moore almost won but ultimately fell 31-24 largely in part to a fumble by LeSean McCoy in the final quarter.
Who could forget falling to the 0-10 Raiders in 2014 in a downpour in Oakland? That game saw Alex Smith enter California at 7-3 as eight-point favorites, eventually losing by four after trailing for most of the game to Derek Carr and Sebastian Janikowski.
Or KC blowing a 17-3 lead over Jay Cutler's Bears as 9.5-point favorites and simultaneously losing Jamaal Charles for the season in 2015. Alex Smith throwing a terrible interception in the end zone against Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in 2016, giving them the game 19-17 despite being seven-point favorites.
The list goes on and on, and it could be even longer after adding in the dozen trap games from Reid's time in Philadelphia. But that was then, and a trip to Atlanta is now. How can the Chiefs ensure that they don't fall victim to the dreaded trap game once again?
What makes Atlanta ripe for a trap game loss?
If there's one thing that Atlanta does well, it's rushing the ball behind Bijan Robinson. They rank fourth in rushing yards this season (1,235), and it's because they also rank fifth in rush attempts (258). So they will obviously want to run the ball.
The good news is that the Chiefs rank seventh in rush defense, with only 780 yards allowed on the ground throughout the season, nearly 20% of which came in Seattle three weeks ago (153).
But the main problem with Kansas City's defense isn't really the rush defense, at least not yet. It's the lack of pressure the defensive line is getting on opposing quarterbacks, and that could lead to the perfect game for Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. presents a dangerous matchup
That's because, in a clean pocket, Penix is one of, if not the best, deep-ball passers in the league. In a limited 2026 season so far, due to injury recovery keeping him out for the first two weeks of the season, Penix still ranks near the top in deep-ball completion percentage (36.84%) behind the likes of Brock Purdy (57.89%), Joe Burrow (53.85%) and Trevor Lawrence (50%).
Speed demons like Jahan Dotson and great 50-50 catch players like Drake London give Penix an easy out when Robinson is being consistently stuffed at the line, like he was against Chicago (63 rushing yards) and San Francisco (82 rushing yards).
That means Steve Spagnuolo might not be able to send the blitz to get pressure because then the secondary is weakened and ripe for a big game from someone like London. That's something London didn't have the last time they played, when he hauled in only 67 receiving yards but also scored a touchdown.
This bodes terribly for Kansas City, even after a five-sack game against the pitiful Jets last week. Why? Because the Falcons currently rank first overall in pressure rate allowed (27.7%) and first in pressure rate allowed against the blitz (21.5%). Their offensive line is prepared, needless to say.
Spags is going to have to get home with four, and he has not been able to do that consistently for the past two seasons. If there is a loss at the end of the rainbow for Mahomes and Kansas City this weekend, it will most likely be due to their defense rather than their depleted offense, believe it or not.
If Atlanta isn't the trap game this season, who is?
There is a chance that Mahomes, Reid, Kelce, and the newest receiver, Josh Downs, can put together another high-scoring performance to keep Atlanta at bay this weekend. That's the main reason they are still favored by 3.5 points despite being the road team with offensive line issues, mediocre receiver play and boom-or-bust defensive line performances.
If the Chiefs come away from Atlanta with a record of 6-3, there are still plenty of opportunities for Reid to get his annual trap-game loss:
Week 11 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 11 at home versus Arizona probably looked like the most secure victory on the schedule before Week 1 began, but they have beaten both teams based in Los Angeles along with Dallas in overtime at "Jerryworld", which means all three of their wins came as serious road underdogs. Currently they are 14-point underdogs next Sunday, November 22, which means they have an opportunity to make that four wins as serious road underdogs.
Arizona has not been a serious organization in years and they will likely be starting their QB3 against KC with no WR1 (Michael Wilson is on IR), no WR2 (traded to Houston) and no WR3 (Kendick Bourne is on IR). They also have no real RB1 due to James Conner AND their first round pick this season, Jeremiyah Love, both being on IR--Tyler Allgeir is their go-to back. All that means is the Chiefs could easily be looking right past the Cardinals and onto Buffalo, forgetting to put their best foot forward against a team who is firmly in contention for the number one overall pick in April.
Week 15 vs. New England Patriots
Monday Night Football at Arrowhead against the Patriots in the cold, late-December air of Week 15 is primed for another late loss that deflates or rallies the team before a playoff push. Much like the Christmas debacle against Vegas three years ago, the Chiefs could be set and ready to get into the playoffs and simply overlook New England, which has had a bevy of bad games due to its quarterback play and lack of healthy receivers.
Week 17 at Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles hosting Kansas City with one week left in the regular season might mean Mahomes, Kelce, or other aging stars could be resting. Who knows? But even if they do play, it doesn't mean the Chargers will be the same easy out that they currently are at 0-8. They could even still be winless, 0-15 at the time, and the Chiefs would find a way to keep the game close and play down to them until they are forced to get their act together.
Week 18 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
And, of course, the final week's matchup at home against the Raiders. By that time, Fernando Mendoza will be seven starts deep under center and could be settling into the position pretty well. They could also be without star players like Maxx Crosby, hoping to preserve their health to make them more tradeable during the offseason. That doesn't mean the Chiefs will look at them any differently. They could also be resting their starters like they have in most final weeks of Mahomes' career. A Week 18 loss doesn't mean much to this team, though, not unless the No. 1 overall seed is on the line.
Can the Chiefs avoid another costly upset?
Despite the negativity that oozes from this article, which is totally unintentional, there is nothing but optimism from Chiefs Kingdom when it comes to the actual games. The free agency pickups, trade deadline rumors, LG and LT drama, offseason problems, and the rest of what makes Kansas City interesting are all subjective, but what isn't is the binary determination of wins and losses.
And with that in mind, the Chiefs have at least one loss per season that would, could, and should be a win in any other universe. Game-changing moments, lack of preparation, overlooking the opponent, or simply not playing up to their pedigree—all of which have been excuses in trap games before. If Atlanta proves to be yet another trap game, then what will be the excuse this time?
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