Breaking down the ideal AFC playoff scenario for the Kansas City Chiefs

With four games remaining in the regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs have positioned themselves perfectly in the AFC standings. They have already clinched the AFC West and boast a 12-1 record, while the next best teams, Buffalo and Pittsburgh, sit at 10-3. Although Buffalo already holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City and Pittsburgh has the opportunity to secure its own tiebreaker on Christmas, both teams face challenging upcoming matchups in Week 15. This would allow the Chiefs to get a stranglehold on the race for the conference's top seed.

Although the #1 seed is highly coveted since there's only one per conference, it doesn't guarantee a deep playoff run. Since the NFL adopted the current playoff format in 2020, 4 of 8 #1 seeds have failed to make the Super Bowl (2 in both the AFC and NFC). Those teams were the 2020 Packers, 2021 Titans, 2021 Packers, and 2023 Ravens. Kansas City knocked out the latter team in last year's AFC Championship Game.

According to Team Rankings, the Chiefs currently possess a 72.3% chance to land the #1 seed, which is strong but far from a lock. This Sunday presents a serious opportunity for them. They'll travel to face a scrappy Cleveland team—while not the worst in football, the Chiefs should handle business. The Bills will head on the road to face the NFC's top team, the Detroit Lions, who are also coming off a mini-bye. The Steelers will take on their in-state rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 11-2 and riding a nine-game winning streak. Neither Buffalo nor Pittsburgh will have an easy Week 15 matchup.

If Kansas City beats Cleveland, Detroit defeats Buffalo, and Philadelphia beats Pittsburgh, the Chiefs will need only to win one of their final three games (home against Houston, at Pittsburgh, and at Denver) to secure the #1 seed. Alternatively, they'll need both the Bills and Steelers to lose at least one game.

Nothing is guaranteed. Both the Steelers and Bills are good teams capable of beating anyone, while the Chiefs have shown vulnerability in recent weeks.

The Chiefs ideal playoff scenario

Let's examine the ideal scenario for the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024-25 playoffs.

1. Getting the No. 1 seed

It starts with landing the #1 seed. This would mean the Chiefs would need to play only two games to win the Lamar Hunt Trophy, with both games at Arrowhead. While they marched through multiple road playoff games last year, they'd likely prefer to avoid that again.

In this scenario, the Chiefs would host one of the #4 through #7 seeds in the Divisional Round. Barring an unexpected comeback from Baltimore in the AFC North race, this would mean either the Texans, Ravens, Chargers, Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, or Bengals would travel to Arrowhead. The latter three teams are not currently in a playoff position but can obtain a wild card slot.

Out of these seven teams, the Ravens, Chargers, and Bengals would pose the toughest matchups for Kansas City. Baltimore has a quarterback to rival Mahomes; Los Angeles boasts an elite QB, head coach, and defense; Cincinnati has historically given the Chiefs' offense problems. In an ideal scenario, the Chiefs would avoid playing any of these three teams in their first playoff game.

The Colts or Dolphins would stand little chance at Arrowhead in a playoff game. The Colts lack a quarterback to threaten Mahomes, and the Dolphins struggle in cold weather. These teams are currently on the outside looking in, so it's unlikely they even make the playoffs, let alone win a Wild Card game.

The Texans and Broncos occupy a middle ground. Houston features CJ Stroud, one of football's better quarterbacks, but their offensive line is a major issue, and they haven't played consistently well in a couple months. The Broncos don't have an elite QB, but they have a solid defense, Sean Payton is an experienced play-caller, and divisional matchups are always tricky. The Chiefs would prefer to avoid both teams but would be strong favorites against either.

2. Looking at the conference championship

The AFC Championship presents a different challenge. Realistically, there's almost no chance the Chiefs will have an easy matchup. Any team reaching this stage will have already won two playoff games and thus be capable of winning a third.

Of the two teams we haven't discussed yet, Buffalo and Pittsburgh, the Bills would be the tougher conference championship opponent. Though the Chiefs are 3-0 against them in playoff matchups over the past five seasons, Josh Allen is one of the NFL's most dynamic players capable of blowing up any defensive game plan. The Bills' defense has proven vulnerable, with a shallow pass rush and zone coverages that well-coached teams can exploit. If the Chiefs can protect Mahomes, their offense should move the ball effectively.

The Steelers would be the more favorable matchup. Despite their strong pass rush, their secondary is beatable, and their offense isn't particularly potent, even with Russell Wilson playing relatively well. The Christmas Day matchup will provide significant insight into how these teams match up against.

3. An eye toward Super Bowl LIX

Regarding a potential Super Bowl matchup, an ideal scenario would involve both Detroit and Philadelphia failing to make it to New Orleans. Teams like Minnesota and Green Bay, while challenging, would be more manageable opponents.

The "ideal playoff scenario" for the Chiefs ultimately requires several key elements: first, locking down the #1 seed by finishing 15-2 or better, or 14-3 if the Bills and Steelers each lose at least one more game. Second, avoiding the Ravens, Chargers, and Bengals in the Divisional Round. They'd prefer the Colts or Dolphins but wouldn't mind the Texans or Broncos. In the AFC Title Game, they'd hope to face anyone other than Buffalo. And in the Super Bowl, they'd want to avoid the Lions and Eagles.

There are no truly easy paths to a Super Bowl victory. The Chiefs demonstrated last year that they can navigate anything. Per DVOA, they had the most challenging path to a successful Super Bowl run since 1981. They're capable of beating anyone on their best day. However, to reach that peak, they must address critical issues: the left tackle situation, an underachieving pass rush, and a leaky pass defense. Solving these could make them the NFL's top team; failing to do so might jeopardize their historic three-peat dreams.