Bills vs Chiefs predictions: Writers expect extremely tight game in AFC Championship

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When the excitement of training camp is at its peak, every NFL fan dares to dream big. Every new acquisition feels like a game-changer, and every franchise is filled with hope, convinced that anything is possible in the upcoming season.

For Kansas City Chiefs fans, however, 2024 wasn't about hope—it was about maintaining dominance. Only a few games on their regular-season schedule stood out as true tests, likely playoff previews. Among them, the Week 11 clash with the Buffalo Bills loomed large, and apparently, quarterback Patrick Mahomes had no doubt it was merely a prelude to a rematch in the postseason.

Mahomes knew it. Josh Allen knew it. And now, here we are.

The AFC Championship has become familiar territory for the Chiefs, solidifying their dynasty. This marks their seventh consecutive conference title game appearance, a feat matched only by the New England Patriots' streak from 2011 to 2018. The symmetry between the two franchises highlights Kansas City's ascent into the upper echelon of NFL lore, rubbing shoulders with one of the league's most iconic dynasties.

For the Bills, the narrative is one of unfulfilled promises when facing Kansas City in January. While Allen and Buffalo have won four of their last five regular-season matchups with the Chiefs, including that pivotal Week 11 game earlier this year, Kansas City owns the postseason spotlight. The Chiefs have won all three playoff encounters, none more memorable than the electrifying "13 Seconds Game." Mahomes and Allen have consistently delivered masterclasses in quarterbacking, raising the stakes and intensity whenever they share the field.

This Sunday's showdown promises more of the same: two of the league's best quarterbacks leading elite teams in a battle for a Super Bowl berth. The stakes couldn’t be higher. For Kansas City, it’s about inching closer to a historic three-peat and further cementing their place in NFL history. For Buffalo, it’s about stepping out of Kansas City’s shadow and proving they belong among the league’s elite.

Chiefs fans, Arrowhead Addict, and the entirety of Chiefs Kingdom are locked in for this epic clash. The question remains: Will the Chiefs continue their reign and move one step closer to immortality, or will the Bills finally exorcise their Kansas City demons and claim the AFC crown? Here’s how the experts see it unfolding.

How will the Kansas City Chiefs fare against the Buffalo Bills this week?

Patrick Allen
The Bills always bear the Chiefs in the regular season, and the Chiefs always beat the Bills in the playoffs, so that is what is going to happen this time around, right? Not so fast. The history between these two teams is irrelevant. It isn't a predictor of the future. The Chiefs have a real fight on their hands and are facing the best remaining playoff team in either conference. The Chiefs have been living on a razor's edge all season and I don't expect that to change vs. the Bills. This game will come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes. The QBs are both awesome, but the Chiefs have the coaching and home-field advantage. That is the difference.
Chiefs 27, Bills 24 in OT

Price Carter
This game is truly a toss-up. I can see either team winning. The Bills are so efficient on offense with their ground game and in short-yardage situations. They also still have an elite quarterback to put on the cape as needed. The Chiefs have the better defense but have struggled to stop Allen and their ground game. The Chiefs offense is going to have to put pressure on the Bills to get out of their heavy sets and ground game. The biggest factor is turnovers: both teams have combined for 1 turnover since Week 11. One play could change the game. With the margins being so tight, I'll give a slight lean to the team that has proven they win in the biggest moments.
Chiefs 26, Bills 24

Matt Conner
It’s destiny at this point. Buffalo had their run and even their fun in the regular reason, but the Chiefs will get the last laugh with the emergence of Xavier Worthy proving to be a huge factor in this second matchup.
Chiefs 30, Bills 23

Josh Fann
After yet another underwhelming offensive performance against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round and DeAndre Hopkins only playing 16 snaps, I want to believe that the Chiefs still have cards to reveal in the AFC Championship. Faith is in the defense to keep the Bills to a reasonable number on the scoreboard, but Kansas City's offense will determine the outcome, and I think we get a vintage Mahomes game where multiple receivers score touchdowns.
Chiefs 31, Bills 24

Braden Holecek
The Chiefs are just two wins away from completing history in the NFL. Of course, it is arguably their greatest AFC challenger standing in the way of a trip to another Super Bowl. Kansas City did not beat the Bills in Buffalo during the regular season. But after some defensive struggles, offensive turnovers, and offensive efficiency, the Chiefs can correct those fundamental errors this time around. Kansas City has been so hyper-focused on getting a three-peat. The roster is as healthy as ever. The Chiefs will find a way to disappoint the Bills' dream again, perhaps with another game-winning play late.
Chiefs 27, Bills 23

Felix Johnson
The Chiefs have only lost to one team (I refuse to count Week 18), and it's really hard for me to believe that Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kielce, who have some of the best revenge-inspired performances in history, will fall to the same team with a more restrained game plan. The Chiefs will see a serious downgrade in defenses from the Divisional, and with the Bills matching their most playoff success of this era, Kansas City has a distinct advantage with a Super Bowl appearance on the line.
Chiefs 30, Bills 27

Jacob Milham
The Kansas Jayhawks wish they could be in the Final Four as often as the Chiefs are. Some teams get there by luck, some get there by being that much better than their competition, or some teams like the Chiefs blend the two together. Kansas City will need every voice in Arrowhead Stadium behind them this Sunday and remind Bills fans why Kansas City hosts the best home-field advantage in the league. Hopefully, head coach Andy Reid rectifies the offensive issues from last week and attacks a Bills defense that struggles a lot more on the road.
Chiefs 28, Bills 24

Greg Morse
Well, well, well, the Chiefs are who we thought they were. And everyone hates them. Seven straight years of nothing but AFC Championship games have led us to another showdown with the Buffalo Bills. Consider that for the last 3 years the Chiefs have faced the Bengals, the Ravens, and now the Bills. Defeating all three in the title game would be quite poetic. But I will admit I have my doubts. The Bills are legit. If anyone can beat the Chiefs, it will be them. I want to see how the Chief-ense contain Josh Allen, and conversely, can the Chiefs' offense finally put it all together for just one game against a questionable Bills defense?
Chiefs 31, Bills 24

Shawn O'Brate
Well, well, well… look who it is again. The Bills are on a heater, and rightfully so, thanks to their great offensive play. But it’s hard to beat a team twice in the NFL, even if they are in your division or they are not the best team in the league. But KC is the best team, and the Bills beat them without some key players on both sides of the ball for KC. I think that the defense massively improved from their last game against Allen, and I think that Mahomes continues to NOT throw turnovers and makes the most of what Buffalo gives him. It’ll be a close game at the end no matter but I think Kansas City doesn’t allow Allen to finally beat them in the playoffs.
Chiefs 28, Bills 26

Stacy D. Smith
The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night in a matchup that could secure their path to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. This contest is a rematch of the 2021 AFC Championship Game and is the fourth meeting between the two teams since then. With a chance to defend another title on the line, I expect the Chiefs to deliver their best performance of the season. Patrick Mahomes has ALWAYS been at his best when facing the Bills in the postseason. Three of his six-highest-rated playoff performances have come against Buffalo. In three games versus the Bills, he's been 79-of-105 (75% completion rate) with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions—good for a 126.6 passer rating. He's going to cook again in this game. I expect a three-touchdown day where he spreads the ball around to the full complement of his offensive weapons. Chiefs' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be in his bag and force a few Buffalo turnovers. The Chiefs punch their ticket to the Big Easy and win.
Chiefs 27, Bills 24

Lucas Strozinsky
This is going to be a tough game. The Chiefs need to focus on these three things: Avoid turning the ball over, score touchdowns in the red zone, and keep Patrick Mahomes clean. If they can accomplish all three of those things, they'll go back to the Super Bowl.
Chiefs 31, Bills 30

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