Saying that NFL games are likely going to come down to the turnover battle is an obvious statement. But in most weeks of the regular season, that is one of a few items that likely makes a key difference between the winner and the loser. That element becomes even more heightened once the calendar flips to the playoffs. And as we saw in this past weekend's Divisional Round, the turnovers were arguably the clearest difference in who is still alive and who is now entering offseason mode.
For the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, they enter Sunday's AFC Championship Game on historic stretches regarding the turnover battle. The Chiefs have been much more sound at protecting the football in the later stages of the season. However, the Bills have simply been elite in that department all year long, a far cry from what we had been used to from Buffalo's offense.
What have each team's star quarterbacks done to better take care of the rock? Plus, are this year's changes to both team's skill groups a major difference in limiting turnovers?
Chiefs Set Record To Round Out Season
The Chiefs ended the regular season with seven straight games without an offensive turnover. After their Divisional Round victory over the Houston Texans, that number has climbed to eight consecutive games without an offensive turnover. Overall, that is a new NFL record for a stretch of games without a giveaway in the Super Bowl era.
Coincidentally, the last time Kansas City turned the ball over was against this week's opponent, the Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions in that game, one early and one late, in what was Kansas City's first loss of the season.
Since that rough outing, Mahomes has stayed clean due to a couple of important factors. For one, the Kansas City signal caller has been excellent at getting the ball out quick and giving his pass catchers chances to make magic after the catch. Mahomes has been able to escape and extend plays when the games become tighter, as well. That mobility was on display quite a bit in his last few games.
Bills Dominate Turnover Differential Thanks To Allen's Improved Decisions
It was a tight finish between the Bills and the Baltimore Ravens to round out Divisional Round weekend. But in the end, a dropped pass on a two-point conversion, along with a few costly turnovers cost Baltimore mightily. The Ravens had three offensive giveaways on Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Bills did not commit a turnover.
Buffalo absolutely obliterated opponents all season long in turnover differential. In fact, their consecutive games streak without losing the turnover battle climbed to 21 games after this past weekend. Not only is that amazing feat still active entering the AFC Championship Game, that mark is now a new NFL record since 1960. That mark also helped the Bills finish this season with the best turnover margin in the league, sitting at +24.
Josh Allen playing much cleaner in vital situations was a critical part of this for the offense. Allen has put together stellar seasons in the past. But in 2024, he arguably had his cleanest season, due to being decisive, playing under control and reading the field accurately. His six interceptions in 2024 were a career low. This was also only the second time in his career where he finished a season with interceptions in the single digits (nine interceptions in 2019). Not to mention, Allen had his career-high mark in interceptions last season (18). A complete 180, to say the least.
Change In Skill Groups Boosting Confidence
Both the Chiefs and the Bills made some significant changes to their skill groups entering 2024. It may not have gone all according to plan for each side. But in terms of helping out their respective quarterback, Kansas City and Buffalo gave each passer an extra boost of confidence. The Chiefs revamped the wide receiver room and added more talent via mostly known commodities. As for the Bills, they took a major headline-grabbing piece out of the equation, allowing for Allen to completely control the show with a younger cast of weapons.
You can argue how much those changes truly impacted things for Kansas City and Buffalo in their overall capability of reaching the AFC Championship Game. Though, each sides' changes were absolutely necessary in getting the offensive units to where they needed to be. If turnovers do end up deciding Sunday's AFC title match, the alterations to the skill groups could become a focal point if either quarterback serves up a gimme to the other side.