It’s a big call to trade away the 10th overall pick in the NFL Draft. It’s an even bigger call to make when it’s the first time your team has ever traded away a top-10 pick for a player in the modern era.
That’s exactly what the Cincinnati Bengals did last weekend when they traded for New York Giants defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence in a move that sends a clear message about how the Bengals view the talent in this year’s draft class and, at the same time, shows that the Kansas City Chiefs’ first-round selection is in just the right spot.
By trading pick ten to the Giants in a straight swap for Lawrence, Cincinnati essentially said they believe the 28-year-old nose tackle is better than any player who could have fallen to them in the first round.
It shows where another NFL team thinks the cut-off point for first-round talent is, and crucially, I think it shows that Kansas City is just on the right side of that line.
Cincinnati’s trade at No. 10 may reveal the first-round cutoff, and why the Chiefs benefit at No. 9.
Even though the Chiefs are only picking one spot ahead of Cincinnati’s original draft position at nine, I feel much better about the Chiefs being able to nab a top-tier player than the Bengals clearly did. I think the Chiefs are a lock to come away with someone good, regardless of who is available, a sentiment Cincinnati clearly didn’t share.
Picking at nine, Kansas City is almost guaranteed to have a top-two player at their position on the board, regardless of how the draft shakes out. It could be David Bailey or Ruben Bain Jr. at edge, Caleb Downs or Mansoor Delane to bolster the secondary, or receivers Carnell Tate or Jordyn Tyson—but at least two of those players will be available when the Chiefs turn in their draft card.
If the Chiefs want to trade up for someone specific, pick nine has good value too. It would be a more appealing swap piece for a trade partner inside the top five, for example, and Kansas City would likely have to package either fewer or lesser picks alongside it than they otherwise would if they were trying to jump up from the bottom half of the first round.
But even if the Chiefs opt to stay put, they know that they’ll still be able to bring in a top player at a position of need who can help their team get better straight away. If the Chiefs were picking one spot later, maybe that same statement wouldn’t be true.
Maybe at ten, the chances of getting the specific guy you want are too low, or the options that might be available at that point in the draft are too thin. While 32 players will be selected in the first round, teams might only view 15–20 of that group as having true “first-round grades.” Who knows—this year, that number might be even smaller.
The Bengals have clearly signaled that they think the value point drops off at pick ten, opting to trade it away for a known quantity—a good but expensive player in Lawrence. The draft board didn’t look sunny for Cincinnati, but just one pick earlier, the prospects seem a whole lot brighter for Kansas City.
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