Advanced stats show Xavier Worthy is holding back Chiefs passing game

The rest of the NFL was livid when the Kansas City Chiefs managed to select Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy in the 2024 NFL Draft. How could the league allow the man who just set an NFL Combine record with a 4.21 40-yard dash to head to a Chiefs team still led by Patrick Mahomes' mighty deep arm?

After a strong start to his career, Worthy has cooled off. Since Week 1, Worthy has just one catch over 20 yards and one game with more than 40 yards receiving. This comes after the Rashee Rice injury gave him plenty of opportunities to kick things up a notch and get an increase in targets.

The DeAndre Hopkins trade illustrated how ineffective Worthy has been since he arrived in Kansas City, The Chiefs' success when targeting just about anyone other than Worthy is night and day when compared to how No. 1's targets have looked.

The Chiefs' success rate when targeting Worthy is 41%, compared to 65% and 62% when targeting Hopkins and Travis Kelce, respectively. Worthy and Isiah Pacheco (who played 2 games) are the only players with a negative WPA (win probability added) when targeted. His EPA (expected points added) is -3.27, essentially taking a field goal off the board.

Xavier Worthy's struggles impacting Chiefs passing game

Worthy came into the league extremely skinny; so much so that he was almost an outlier for the modern age. On a good day, Worthy is around 170 pounds. It's hard to escape physical press coverage at that size, especially when you're a rookie trying to get your feet wet.

Worthy was able to win on speed alone in college, but his lack of extremely precise route-running and physicality has caught up to him in the pros. As names like Jacoby Ford and John Ross have shown, having great speed does not equate to being a great receiver.

While Worthy may have been considered a bit of a developmental receiver who needs a few years of professional strength-building before he hits his ceiling, is it fair to ask more of someone billed as an instant contributor by virtue of his first-round designation?

Worthy is by no means a finished product, and the Chiefs' lack of verticality has made it difficult to integrate a player with Worthy's specific skillset into the offense. It's also true that Mahomes has missed him on more than one occasion, so the stats should look better than they do. However, the Chiefs will need the former Longhorns star to grow up quickly if they are to make it through a gauntlet in the AFC.