3 things ruining the Chiefs offense (and how to fix them)

It's hard to say why the Kansas City Chiefs aren't a winning football team right now. Almost everything points to them being a top contender in the AFC.

The Chiefs rank fifth in total DVOA, and the five teams behind them are all seeded ahead of them in the playoffs. The only team with a better point differential than the Chiefs in the AFC is the Patriots, who have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL per DVOA.

If we showed you these stats and put our thumb over the record, you'd think the Chiefs were contending for the No. 1 seed, not fighting for their playoff lives. So what needs to change?

Seeing as the Chiefs’ defense has been more consistent over the season and has faced a fully healthy Chargers team, Eagles, Ravens with Lamar Jackson, Jaguars with Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter, Bills, and Broncos, they have been at expectation. Nobody expected the Chiefs to be a dominant defense, but they've at least met reasonable expectations.

The Chiefs managed to get two starting left tackles, Kingsley Suamataia is exceeding expectations at guard, Kelce is having the best season by a 36-year-old tight end ever, and Worthy, Rice, and Brown are on the field together—yet the offense is still not what it should be. So what needs to change for the offense? Let's look at three things.

Patrick Mahomes vs. The Blitz

In some of the most critical moments of the Chiefs–Broncos game, the Broncos were able to get a totally unblocked rusher on Mahomes. Historically, blitzing Patrick Mahomes has been a death sentence for a defense. Between the weapons he has, the otherworldly ability to extend plays, and his arm talent, Mahomes has made a career out of punishing teams that blitz him. This year, that has not been the case, which doesn’t really make sense.

The Chiefs offensive line might quietly be the best it’s ever been in the Mahomes era. Patrick Mahomes’ 26% pressure rate is the lowest of his career—the lowest since 2022, when it was 28.9%. Even when blitzed, that pressure rate jumps to 38.1%, which is 22nd among 34 qualified passers.

So why are the Chiefs struggling when blitzed? Mahomes has the 8th-most dropbacks against the blitz this season and is 23rd in blitz rate (29.1%). It seems that teams are blitzing him more, and the Chiefs just don’t have players who are winning quickly enough against man coverage, which often accompanies a blitz.

Chiefs versus Man Coverage

The Chiefs’ offense is chock-full of players who can beat zone coverage well. Primarily, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy are all better against zone than man coverage. What gives the Chiefs fits against man coverage seems to be their lack of receivers who can separate quickly as pure route runners or win at the catch point.

Every single receiver on the Chiefs has worse yards per route run against man coverage than zone, and Mahomes’ stats mirror the same pattern.

Because the Chiefs have built an offensive infrastructure around yards after the catch and speed to open things underneath for Kelce and Rice, it feels like they have no answers against man. The Chiefs have to get back to using classic man-beating concepts beyond mesh. The Chiefs rarely utilize dagger concepts, which is surprising with their deep speed.

Also, the Rashee Rice slant needs to come back. Rice’s usage has been puzzling lately, as he’s not being used over the middle of the field consistently as he was in the past. It would also help if the Chiefs had better passing options at running back, as they rank 25th in receiving yardage by running backs. A great checkdown option can help against man coverage.

Improving the Chiefs' ground game

The surface-level analysis of the Chiefs’ run game is that they don’t do it enough, which is a little inaccurate when you consider the fact that you’re taking away the most effective way to move the ball (passing) and one of the most efficient passers in the league. The problem isn’t as simple as “if the Chiefs start running the ball more, the offense will be better.” In fact, the opposite is true: if the Chiefs start handing the ball off more and more, their ability to generate explosive plays will tank.

The problem is how the Chiefs run the ball, and the fact that teams don’t care even when the Chiefs do run it. They’ll take an eight-yard run from Kareem Hunt any day of the week over a Mahomes dropback.

The first and most obvious issue with the Chiefs’ run game is the personnel. Unfortunately, that’s just not going to change this season. Not only is the running back room deprived of talent, but they’ve also ignored several other spots that could help the ground game. They have several receivers on the roster who are not reliable blockers, they don’t have a strong blocking tight end, and they’ve opted not to carry a fullback either. So if the “Jimmies and Joes” aren’t changing, it’s time for the X’s and O’s to change.

Andy Reid sparked some conversation on Monday when he said in a press conference, “The runs are being called; it’s just sometimes they get turned into passes in today’s world.” An obvious nod to the RPO (run-pass option) scheme that the Chiefs employ, the Chiefs run the second-most RPOs of any team in the league. Despite that high rate, they rank 16th in rush yards from RPO.

The Chiefs are treating RPOs like true run plays when, in reality, they’re passing on over 80% of called RPOs. Additionally, these run plays make it harder for offensive linemen, as they can’t fully run-block downhill or do a true pass set. RPOs are also almost exclusively run from the shotgun or the pistol, bringing up another concern.

The Chiefs are among the league’s lowest rates of under-center snaps for both passing and running. This is particularly noticeable when you look at the teams at the top of the list—all of which are playoff teams and some of the best offenses in the NFL. Running from under center allows backs to be moving toward the ball at the snap rather than starting from a standstill. There’s also an increased level of deception when the quarterback’s back is turned to the defense. (Check out additional reading on the impact of under center earlier in the year.) The Chiefs’ EPA/play is 2nd in the NFL from under center and 5th from shotgun. The big difference? Their .11 EPA/play nearly doubles to .21 from under center.

What can the Chiefs change in a week?

To summarize all of this: the Chiefs need to start making life easier on Patrick Mahomes. Look at what offenses like the Rams, Bills, Seahawks, 49ers, and Colts are asking of their quarterbacks, and then look at what the Chiefs are asking Mahomes to do. Even an MVP like Josh Allen is asked to put on his Superman cape a few plays a game instead of every drive. The Chiefs have no more easy button on offense now that they don’t have two Hall of Fame talents in their prime, and schemes have caught up to Andy Reid’s trends. Defenses have been building to beat the Chiefs for years, and now it’s working.

The Chiefs have to start calling more designed runs—not RPOs—in run situations (1st and 2nd and short), they need to continue to grow their under-center passing game (Mahomes has 25 dropbacks from under center), and they have to start finding regular ways to beat man coverage. The Colts play man coverage at the 9th-highest rate, and now they have Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward on the field together for the first time. There are no more excuses for talent now; it has to come down to scheme and execution as the Chiefs fight for their playoff lives.