Isiah Pacheco should be among NFL’s top 10 most productive running backs in 2023

Arrowhead Addict contributor Greg Florkowski crunches the number and looks at Isaiah Pacheco’s 2023 campaign to determine if he will take the next step.

Seventh-round rookie running back Isiah Pacheco was crucial in the Kansas City Chiefs’ campaign to win Super Bowl 57. While Pacheco did not come into the season expecting to be the starter—that role was given to former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire—he eventually took over by midseason.

With his unforeseen success and the Chiefs’ decision to decline Edwards-Helaire’s fifth-year option, Pacheco is expected to be the RB1 in 2023 for the Chiefs.

Statistically speaking, what does that mean for the second-year running back out of Rutgers?

2022 Campaign

Going into the 2022 season, Pacheco was not on the radar of many analysts, but there was reason to believe in the rookie when he won the endorsement of head coach Andy Reid in the preseason.

Reid was spot-on when it came to Pacheco: he runs with a toughness that has not been seen in Kansas City for a long time. Pacheco was a seventh-round pick, but it did not take long before he won the starting running back position and, most importantly, the hearts of Chiefs Kingdom.

In 2022, Pacheco had 170 carries for 830 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those numbers are misleading, and some would believe that Pacheco was better than that, but when we pull back the curtain, we see that these numbers are great since Pacheco was the number two running back for the first eight games of the season, averaging only 5.5 carries a game! During the remainder of the season, Pacheco almost tripled his carries to 13.75 carries a game.

The carries increased because Pacheco took advantage of his opportunities when he had them and the inconsistent production from Edwards-Helaire. The starting position was Pacheco’s for good after Edwards-Helaire was placed on injured reserve and Pacheco never looked back.

Take a look for yourself.

Pacheco was critical in the Chiefs’ campaign due to his playmaking ability in the moments when the team needed it most, and that was closing out games using his hard running style to break tackles and getting the yards the Chiefs needed to get the job done. It is hard to see Pacheco slowing down in 2023.

2023 Outlook

It is hard to predict what Pacheco will do in 2023 because CEH is possibly coming back with something to prove as the backfield also has to make room for the return of Jerick McKinnon. It would appear the Chiefs will once again go with a running-back-by-committee approach, which will have the ability to tamper Pacheco’s stats or ability to take over the running back position for the Chiefs.

For starters, I applied Pacheco’s average carries to all 17 games, bringing his carries to 234 in 2023. Then using an algorithm for predicting future running back yards from Football Guys, we can get a rough estimate of Pacheco’s production in 2023.

-731 + 3.73 * Rush Attempts + 180 * Yards/Rush

Above is the formula that will be used to look at his attempts and his yards per rush average; after plugging in those numbers, we get the following formula.

-731 + 3.73 * 234 + 180 * 4.9 = 1,024

With the numbers calculated, Pacheco would rush for 1,024 yards, a total that would automatically make him a top-ten running back regarding rushing yards.

Pacheco had only five touchdowns in 2022, and the running back who got most of the goal-line looks was Jerick McKinnon with 10 touchdowns in 2022, who was second on the team to the tremendous touchdown machine Travis Kelce. As mentioned, it is to be seen if Pacheco gets more chances at the goal line with the stable of running backs Kansas City will field in 2023.

Still, I think Pacheco will be the weapon the Chiefs have been looking for in the backfield since Kareem Hunt, or maybe even the great Jamaal Charles. What do you think? Are the predictions too much? Too little? Let me know in the comments below.