The Super Bowl is set between the Chiefs and Eagles following a thrilling win in Kansas City on Sunday night with the Chiefs emerging as AFC Champions for the third time in six seasons.
Now, the next challenge for Kansas City is the Philadelphia Eagles, the team who had the best record in the league in the regular season, are 16-1 with Jalen Hurts starting under center and outscored their two opponents 69-14 in the two games.
It’s a tall order, but the Chiefs are no slouch either, facing a tougher group of opponents and battling injuries in the AFC title game to make it back to the Super Bowl.
Kansas City opened as small favorites before the Eagles took a ton of money on Sunday night to sit as favorites as of this writing. Is there betting value at the current prices?
Let’s dive into the odds and find the best bet:
Chiefs vs. Eagles odds, spread and total
Chiefs vs. Eagles betting trends
- The Chiefs are 7-11-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
- The Eagles are 10-9 ATS this season
- The Eagles went OVER in 10 of 17 regular season games, but neither postseason game
- The Chiefs went UNDER in 11 of 19 games this season, including both postseason games
- Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 2-1 ATS in Super Bowls
- Andy Reid has gone UNDER in all three Super Bowls he was a head coach in
Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction and pick
In my opinion, this line should be a pick ’em, so I see value on the Chiefs at plus-money.
Let’s start with the injury situation for both teams. The Eagles have had relatively good health throughout the postseason. While Jalen Hurts had a shoulder sprain about a month ago that cost him two starts and offensive lineman Lane Johnson has been battling a groin injury, the Eagles have had their full complement of weapons available.
The same can’t be said for Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes battled through a high ankle sprain and Travis Kelce was a late addition to the injury report this past week with a back injury. Then, the team lost several key contributors during the AFC title game itself including Juju Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and L’Jarius Sneed. Now, the Chiefs get another bye week to get healthy ahead of the postseason.
I believe the Chiefs will get a positive injury report leading up to the Super Bowl, which can generate some line movement towards the AFC representative.
Now, for the on-field handicap.
While the Eagles pass rush is fantastic, the Chiefs offensive line is a sturdy one that can give Mahomes enough time to pick apart the Philly secondary. On a bum ankle, Mahomes was able to complete more than 67% of his passes for 326 yards against a formidable Bengals pass rush. However, the team couldn’t get the run game going at all, averaging about two yards per carry.
The Eagles are vulnerable against the run, and with more time to heal, the Chiefs may actually have the decisive edge by their ability to run, not with Mahomes playmaking. Philly is 23rd in EPA/Rush, so this can be a big game for the likes of Isiah Pacheco on the ground.
Meanwhile, it’s interesting if you dig a little deeper, you find that the Eagles defense may not be as strong as it appears. Philadelphia played a relatively easy schedule and wasn’t tested by an elite offense all that often, as Connor Allen from 4for4 notes:
https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFL/status/1620135198083133442?s=20&t=A9xWgrCzTtPv3VM8pQ8yCw
I’m going to trust a refreshed and more healthy Chiefs offense to outpace the Eagles offense, who may be overvalued based on an easy path to the Super Bowl. This game should be lined as a coin flip and I’ll take the better quarterback to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.