The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals are set for a high-power matchup this Sunday. Let’s look at some prop bets for Chiefs fans ahead of the AFC Championship.
You don’t have to be a fan of a certain team, or even a sport, to find a good bet. I have found myself betting on college basketball teams I have never heard of and tennis in other countries simply because the bet had value. But I will say nothing beats betting on the Kansas City Chiefs. Betting on your favorite team is either the most fulfilling win or the most frustrating loss.
If you want to bet on your favorite team, you still need to keep an educated mind about it. For example, Chiefs fans wanted a decisive win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, and the betting spread had Kansas City winning by nine points. However, Kansas City is one of the league’s worst teams against the spread in 2022, failing to cover larger spreads even at home. And what happened last week? The Chiefs won 27-20, failing to cover the spread once again. I knew, given Kansas City’s performance against the spread this season, I would not place that bet simply because I wanted a big Chiefs victory.
The betting lines have been volatile as the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals meet this Sunday. No matter the favorite, Vegas has its money on a tight contest. I am putting my money on Kansas City winning, especially as ESPN’s FPI model gives Kansas City a 66.4% chance of beating Cincinnati. Those are pretty good odds. However, betting on the NFL is not where the money is made.
For more experienced or educated bettors, prop bets offer some value inside the game. There are some wacky longshots mixed in, but these bets are on how individual players perform rather than the entire team. Chiefs fans know that there are some select players who will decide this game. Big performances from quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and defensive tackle Chris Jones would certainly propel Kansas City past the Bengals. If bettors look beyond the usual names, which Chiefs prop bets are looking the best?
Pacheco over 57.5 rushing and receiving yards
This is by far my favorite prop bet this week for the Chiefs. Running back Isiah Pacheco has been a force in the season’s second half, taking on most of the team’s rushing attempts. He is getting plenty of opportunities in Kansas City, but Pacheco is producing too. He has exceeded this rushing and receiving line nine times in the past ten games, including last week against the Jaguars. Pacheco is healthy entering this week, and the Chiefs will likely rely more on the running game with Mahomes’ ankle injury.
Noah Gray over 12.5 receiving yards
Tight end Noah Gray has quietly had a decent season as TE2 behind Kelce. He has improved on every statistical metric from his rookie season, catching 28 passes for 299 yards in the regular season. He had a 27-yard catch against the Jaguars, but that one play alone would exceed Vegas’ line for him against the Bengals. Gray has exceeded this receiving line in eight of his past ten games, but not by much at times. Mahomes’ ability to extend plays will be limited against the Bengals, so Gray could see three or more targets in the short-passing game.
Jerick McKinnon under 27.5 rushing yards
Running back Jerick McKinnon’s value to this team is in his pass protection and receiving out of the backfield, not in his rushing ability. That was on full display against the Jaguars, as McKinnon’s highlights were two blocking plays. McKinnon saw the field plenty, but only produced 25 yards on 11 carries. Considering Pacheco’s rushing rise and McKinnon’s best fit with the Chiefs, he may not see much rush opportunity this week. Be aware that McKinnon has had more than 27 rushing yards in three games this season!