Bengals vs. Chiefs best first touchdown scorer picks for AFC Championship

It’s been a wild couple of days for bettors tracking the Cincinnati Bengals versus Kansas City Chiefs odds. First, the Chiefs were 1-point favorites. Then the Bengals were 2.5-point favorites. Now the Chiefs are back on top.

For those who don’t follow betting lines, that’s not normal.

Of course, this all has to do with Patrick Mahomes injured ankle. He looked pretty normal at practice yesterday, but how effective he’ll be on Sunday remains to be seen.

We know Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals offense is humming coming into this game, and we know Travis Kelce is unstoppable in the playoffs, so who’s gonna hit paydirt first? Here’s a few thoughts on who to wager on.

Bengals vs Chiefs First TD Scorer Pick and Prediction

Remember, betting on first TD scorer is different than anytime TD scorer in the person you bet on needs to score the first touchdown of the game, not the first touchdown for their team and not a TD at any point in the game. Gotta be first to find paydirt.

That being said, wouldn’t it be perfect if Mahomes was the first to score? It’s a contrarian thought process given his ankle situation, but at +3500 odds, it’s hard to resist.

He had four rushing TDs this year and has recorded at least one rushing TD in playoffs every years he’s played.

Now, he didn’t have an ankle injury in those previous playoffs, but still, that’s a fact.

I’m not going to go heavy on this, but I will put a few bucks on it on the off chance the Chiefs get the ball first and fool everyone near the goal line by entrusting Mahomes to punch it in.

A more realistic scenario is Jerick McKinnon. Because Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury, I anticipate the Chiefs to play out of the shotgun more often. That will limit Mahomes’ movement and increase McKinnon’s role.

McKinnon played 65% of the snaps against the Jags last week, a massive increase from the previous three weeks that saw him get less than 50% of the snaps. That’s because he’s the Chiefs primary back out of the shotgun. If that’s the case, he should be on the field when the Chiefs get close to the end zone early in the game.

Before being held out of the end zone last week McKinnon had scored in six straight games, totaling 8 TDs in that time. The Chiefs will find creative ways to get him involved in this game, and that could lead to him being the first to score.

Both of these are higher-risk, higher-reward bets, so definitely don’t go overboard on them. I mean, the Bengals could get the ball to start and none of this will matter. But I like these two as potential first TD scorers because the first would be poetic and the second seems pragmatic. Either way, it’s more fun when you have a little skin in the game.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.