Given the uncertainty surrounding his ankle injury, one can understand the trepidation of betting on Patrick Mahomes’ player props.
Vegas has certainly paid attention, negatively adjusting most of his performance props from last week to this.
But where some see risk, I see value, and certainly there’s value on Mahomes this week.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets
Mahomes total passing yards prop started the week off at in the low-273 range but has since increased to the 280-yard range. I still like the OVER here. Mahomes went over 280 pass yards in 5-of-8 home games this season and has gone over in 6-of-10 career playoff games at home.
In his career at Arrowhead, he averages over 290 passing yards per game. In AFC Championship games, which have all been at home, he averages over 297 passing yards per game.
Another spot I see value is Mahomes as an anytime TD scorer, meaning he needs to either rush for a TD or catch one. Last week against the Jags, his odds to cross the goalline with the ball in his hands was around +350 (depending on the book). This week, those odds are all the way up to +800 at some books. Clearly, there is concern about Mahomes using his legs to score, but if he’s out there (which he will be), these odds are skewed too far from the norm.
Mahomes scored four rushing TDs this year and has scored one rushing TD in the playoffs every season he’s played. Andy Reid loves surprising defenses and it wouldn’t be beyond him to draw up a Mahomes carry near the goal line expecting the Bengals to leave him unaccounted for based on his injury. Obviously, the odds are long for a reason, but there’s no denying the value here.
Books are limiting their props on Mahomes given his ankle injury, but there’s certainly value in betting on him this week. It’s a risk to be sure, but I’d rather risk it betting on Mahomes than any other quarterback in the league, even on one good ankle.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.