Patrick Mahomes play prop analysis with heavy action on the under on Mahomes passing yard prop.
If Patrick Mahomes is looking for bulletin-board material, he must look west toward Vegas. He’ll find an abundance of bet slips and odds telling him he’s headed for another disappointing finish in the AFC Championship game.
With Mahomes dealing with a high-angle sprain, Vegas has set the visiting Bengals as 1-point favorites against the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs actually opened as 1-point favorites, but so many bets and so much money were wagered on the Bengals, the line flipped the other way.
I want to submit this as exhibit one of the case of disrespecting people vs Mahomes and Kansas City.
Despite Mahomes practicing Wednesday and looking relatively mobile in warmups, his total passing yards prop number has also dropped 11% week-over-week. Against the Jaguars, Mahomes passing-yard OVER/UNDER was 309.5. This week, it’s currently 277.5. Even when it opened at a lower number, the masses were betting Mahomes would throw for UNDER 277.5 yards against Cincy.
Most bet player prop?
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 25, 2023
Patrick Mahomes under 273.5 passing yards (-110).
68% of money on the UNDER at @BetMGM. pic.twitter.com/HBcgztGXpH
This is exhibit two submitted to evidence the case of the disrespecting people vs Mahomes and Kansas City.
Now, the good news. Mahomes has thrown for OVER 277.5 passing yards in 7-of-12 playoff games and went over that number in 11-of-19 total games this season. In 2019, he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1 and then torched the Raiders for over 400 passing yards and 4 TDs in Week 2. Not comparing the 2019 Raiders to the 2022 Bengals, but he’s succeeded in this situation before.
When people doubt greatness, greatness tends to silence the doubters. I look forward to Mahomes doing that to bettors around the country and making some money on the ride.