After opening as small home favorites for the AFC Championship game, the Kansas City Chiefs are now underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Of course, a lot of this line movement is generated from quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain that will very likely hamper his play in the conference title game. While it appears that there is no doubt he will play, how he will play is what is piquing bettors interest.
MRI today confirmed that Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during Saturday’s win over the Jaguars, per league source. “Nothing more than that,” said one source, and Mahomes has said he plans to play in next Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 22, 2023
Here’s the updated odds for the AFC Championship Game:
Bengals vs. Chiefs odds, spread and total
Patrick Mahomes Injury Status
It’s the most important ankle in the state of Missouri this week as head coach Andy Reid said that the Chiefs are taking Mahomes’ injury day-to-day, but that Mahomes is going to play on Sunday.
#Chiefs coach Andy Reid told reporters that QB Patrick Mahomes "worked hard on the treatment and is doing OK." Asked about his status, Reid says he's "gonna play" and that this isn't as serious as the one Mahomes suffered in 2019.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 23, 2023
see you Sunday, Chiefs Kingdom! ⏰ pic.twitter.com/mrTgR48T84
— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) January 24, 2023
While he may play, bettors are skeptical as this is a significant line move to post the Chiefs as home underdogs in the title game. This is the fourth meeting between the two teams in the last two seasons, including Week 13 when the Bengals won as home underdogs of 2.5 points 27-24. Cincinnati has won all three meetings, including last season’s AFC Championship game in Kansas City. Now, with Mahomes injured, this will be the first time that KC is an underdog.
According to Action Network, nine times in the last 20 years teams has a home team opened as a favorite and closed as an underdog is 5-4 straight up and 6-3 against the spread.
There appears to be market resistance at +3 for the Chiefs, as the thought of getting Mahomes and co. at a field goal or more is too attractive to pass up, even if he is on an injured ankle, but this is a story worth monitoring leading up to kick off on Sunday.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.