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Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction and odds for AFC Championship Game (Vegas expects a close game)

By Iain MacMillan

CINCINNATI, OHIO - DECEMBER 04: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball in the second quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on December 04, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OHIO - DECEMBER 04: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs with the ball in the second quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on December 04, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the AFC Championship Game for the fifth straight year.

The game will be a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship, which saw the Cincinnati Bengals win by a final score of 27-24.

There are a few different storylines revolving around this game. The main one being Patrick Mahomes’ health. He suffered a high ankle sprain in the Divisional Round against the Jaguars, but he is expected to play on Sunday.

The other storyline is the Bengals dominance over the Chiefs the past two seasons. Despite seemingly near-invincible, the Bengals have been the Chiefs kryptonite. Cincinnati is 3-0 against Kansas City dating back to last year’s regular season.

The Chiefs were favored in all three games, but fell short regardless. Can they finally beat them on Sunday and advance to the Super Bowl?

Let’s take a look at the odds for the AFC Championship.

Bengals vs. Chiefs odds, spread, and total

Bengals vs. Chiefs betting trends

  • Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games
  • Bengals are 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games
  • Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Chiefs
  • Bengals are 7-1 straight up in their last eight games vs. Chiefs
  • Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games
  • Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against AFC West opponents
  • Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games
  • The UDNER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams
  • Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against AFC North opponents

Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction and pick

Don’t let Joe Burrow scare you. The Bengals have statistically been an extremely average football team this season, and I think the Chiefs are about to punch their ticket to Super Bowl 57.

For example, the Bengals rank 14th in the NFL in yards per play, and their defense ranks 16th in opponent yards per play. The Chiefs are first  and ninth in those two metrics.

This obviously brings up the health of Patrick Mahomes. Can we bet on him despite the injury news? I say yes.

I believe the current betting line is based on Mahomes’ play being limited by his ankle. If he hadn’t suffered this injury, the line would be much more in the Chiefs’ favor. If we’re able to bet it at the current line, and Mahomes looks close to his normal self on Sunday, then we’re holding a valuable betting slip.

Despite their impressive win over the Bills, I’m not fully sold on the Bengals. Their metrics don’t hold up to public perception.

Give me the Chiefs to win and cover this spread on Sunday.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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