It’s been a while since Travis Kelce’s had one of those “holy sh*t” games. Pre-Thanksgiving, to be exact. But bettors shouldn’t let Kelce’s late-season swoon (by his standards, at least) concern them. He’s a killer in the playoffs and I’m backing him on two player props this weekend.
Right now, Kelce is set with -145 odds to be an anytime TD scorer and his OVER/UNDER receiving yards is set at 81.5. I’m betting him to score a TD and go OVER on his receiving yards and I’ll tell you why.
For those who don’t remember, Kelce dominated in last season’s playoffs, scoring a TD and eclipsing 90 receiving yards in every game. That’s not an apparition.
Since 2017, Kelce has scored a touchdown in nine-of-12 games and gone OVER 81 receiving yards in eight-of-12 games. Overall, he averages 86.1 receiving yards per game and 0.8 TDs per game in the playoffs. That includes his rookie and sophomore seasons when he caught 0 TDs and had 228 receiving yards in three playoff games. Point is, he’s been nearly unstoppable in the playoffs over the last five seasons.
This year against Jacksonville, Kelce had 81 receiving yards and a TD. That’s because the Jags are one of the worst teams defending the tight end position. They gave up the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends in the NFL this season and tied for the ninth-most touchdowns allowed. In their Wild Card game, Chargers tight end Gerald Everett went off for 109 receiving yards and a TD against the Jags.
Kelce’s gone through a little bit of a dry spell recently. He hasn’t caught a touchdown since November (six games total) and he’s only gone over 81 receiving yards twice in his last seven games. But he’s still averaging over 8 targets per game during that run and over 10 yards per catch.
In a game of this magnitude, and with extra time to prepare, I expect Andy Reid to cook up plays designed specifically for Kelce and I have no doubt Patrick Mahomes will look his way in unscripted moments as well. That should spell trouble for a Jags team that struggles against tight ends and profits for those like me who bet on Kelce to end his recent dry run.