Revisiting the KC Chiefs win over the Jaguars in Week 10

The Divisional Round matchups are set and the Kansas City Chiefs will have their second meeting with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday afternoon.

Following a bye in the opening round of the playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs will be back to work when the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars return to One Arrowhead Drive this weekend for a rematch. When the two teams met in November 13, the Chiefs bested the Jags 27-17 to improve to 7-2. That game would prove to be a watershed moment for the Jaguars. From that point on, they were winners of six of their last seven to close out the AFC South and lock in the AFC’s No. 4 seed.

Despite having the home field in their Super Wild Card Round bout with the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville quickly fell behind 27-0 in the first half of the contest. The Jags didn’t score their first touchdown until only 24 seconds remained in the first half. With some resilient second-half play, head coach Doug Pederson and company completed the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history. It was a lopsided performance, but Jacksonville qualified for a chance to return to Kansas City with a chance to play the part of postseason spoiler.

In that Week 10 game, the Chiefs had one of their cleanest offensive performances over the back half of the season. The offensive line might’ve turned in one of their best efforts of the 2022 season and kept Patrick Mahomes upright throughout the contest. Ever the great steward, the soon-to-be crowned two-time MVP turned that protection into a four-touchdown day where he completed 74% of his passes. The lone mistake he made was more a brilliant play by safety Andre Cisco—undercutting a Jerick McKinnon route to pick Mahomes off—than a bad throw.

It was a patient performance where Mahomes used his legs when Jacksonville’s coverage held up on the outside. Despite taking what the Jaguars’ defense gave him, Mahomes made a few superb throws in the game. Many of them came in key situations that extended drives. It’s the kind of performance the Chiefs will need from him in their quest for a second ring in the past four seasons.

On Kansas City’s opening offensive drive, the Chiefs drove into Jaguars’ territory but wound up in a third-and-long situation (3rd & 8 from the Jacksonville 38-yard line). Patrick Mahomes rolled to his right to avoid blitz pressure off the left side and hit JuJu Smith-Schuster, on the move, for a 25-yard gain. Late in the game, Jacksonville had cut KC’s lead to just 10 points and the Chiefs needed a successful drive to close the game out. Facing a 3rd & 7 at his own 13-yard line, Mahomes uncorked a gorgeous back-shoulder to throw to find Marquez Valdes-Scantling up the right boundary.

An underrated aspect of the Chiefs’ victory in this game was a quiet but impressive performance from rookie running back Isiah Pacheco. He posted 82 rushing yards on the day on just 16 carries. His day was marred by a red zone fumble on Kansas City’s first offensive possession. On first down, from the Jaguars’ 13-yard line, Pacheco gained six yards on his way into traffic in the middle of Jacksonville’s defense. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins delivered a hit that jarred the ball loose and it was promptly scooped up by linebacker Devin Lloyd.

The Chiefs got an unexpected performance from then-newcomer Kadarius Toney. In just his second game with Kansas City, he amassed 90 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. That performance was punctuated by a highlight reel catch where the former Giant Moss’d two defenders, up the right sideline, for a 22-yard gain. This was the first time since being traded to Kansas City that he made clear how valuable he can be to the Chiefs’ offense. He gained yardage both through the air and on the ground and from varying offensive sets.

Coordinator Dave Toub’s special teams were among the few stains on an otherwise stress-free day for Kansas City. Jacksonville caught the kick return team off guard with a successful onside kick to start the game. Just before the end of the half, Kansas City had special teams gaffes on two separate plays. With just 46 seconds remaining in the second quarter, the Chiefs scored on a 13-yard pass play to tight end Noah Gray. Kicker Harrison Butker hooked the subsequent PAT wide left, but the Chiefs still led 20-0 at that point.

Jacksonville went 61 yards for a score in just 35 seconds to cut the lead to 13 points. After a successful point after try, the Jaguars squibbed the following kickoff and tight end Jody Fortson took the ball up to Kansas City’s own 31-yard line before fumbling the football. Jacksonville recovered, but the Chiefs caught a break when Jags’ kicker Riley Patterson pushed a 41-yard field goal attempt wide left.

This has been a season-long issue for Kansas City. It’s the one thing the Chiefs cannot afford to continue heading into the postseason tournament. Fortunately for them, the Jaguars weren’t able to capitalize on the mistakes well enough to keep the Week 10 contest competitive. Such may not hold true when they come back to town on Saturday afternoon. If the Chiefs have struggled with anything throughout their 2022 campaign, it’s been with allowing ostensibly inferior opponents to hang around in games.

Kansas City’s defense acquitted itself well despite the team being minus-3 overall on the day. The Jaguars did put together more than 300 yards of total offense but were held to just 17 points despite three red zone trips. The Chiefs did allow Jacksonville to convert both fourth-down plays they attempted, but the Jags were just 4-of-14 on third down. The one thing KC was able to do with some measure of consistency was pressure the quarterback. Trevor Lawrence was dumped five times in the game, and Chris Jones got to him 1.5 times, in third down situations, to snuff out drives.

Despite a serviceable performance, the Chiefs’ defense was not perfect in the game. Jacksonville receivers Zay Jones and Christian Kirk combined for 173 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 17 catches. They found success in the second half and aided Trevor Lawrence in extending drives in crucial situations. Kansas City began the game by forcing punts on four of the Jaguars’ first five drives. In the second half, they scored on two of three possessions. The Chiefs will need a more even performance this Saturday.

Kansas City overcame its mistakes and won the game going away when they faced the Jaguars in November. 10 weeks later, the Chiefs will want to put a better product on the field in the Divisional Round. The Jaguars are a better football team than they were in mid-November. KC cannot afford to give them extra possessions with turnovers and lethargic special teams play.

After a sloppy Jacksonville performance this past weekend, Kansas City must find a way to force turnovers the way the Chargers did in the Wild Card Round. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was intercepted four times on Saturday night. He was rattled with blitzes and some crafty defensive line play. Joe Cullen’s unit had success against the Jaguars in the original matchup and will look to repeat that effort on Saturday afternoon.

The Kansas City offense will be healthier this time around. Mecole Hardman did not play in the Week 10 game and JuJu Smith-Schuster was knocked out early due to a big hit from safety Andre Cisco. The key will be another quality performance from the team’s offensive line. Jacksonville was bottom-fourth in the league in terms of sacks in 2022. Kansas City must not allow them to pressure Mahomes this weekend. If they can keep him clean, the Chiefs have a very good chance of making their fifth-straight appearance in the AFC Championship Game.