It feels like just yesterday that Patrick Mahomes was the young, hotshot quarterback in the AFC that was taking a run at Tom Brady and the Patriots, but now Mahomes is the elder statesman in the AFC playoffs and we’ve got a new young gun.
Trevor Lawrence didn’t look like it in the first half against the Chargers, but things turned quickly and it took Lawrence until just his second season to get his first playoff win and Doug Pederson up and coming Jacksonville Jaguars who have been playing do or die games for weeks could jump the Kansas City Chiefs off the bye week.
It’ll be a good one at Arrowhead, so let’s get into the odds.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs odds, spread and total
Kansas City and Jacksonville betting trends
Kansas City is 5-11-1 ATS
Jacksonville is 9-8-1 ATS
Kansas City is 1-7-1 ATS in last nine home games
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in last six overall
Trevor Lawrence has never lost a game on a Saturday
Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction and pick
Going into the divisional round last year, the outright winner owned a 29-10-1 ATS record in the last 40 playoff games. Last season was more of the same with all four winners covering the spread in the divisional round.
When picking these games, don’t worry about the number pick the team you think is going to win and more often than not, they’ll cover. More importantly, never bet on an underdog unless you truly believe that they can win. Honestly, I don’t think Jacksonville can win.
Lawrence looked lost in the first half of that game at home against the Chargers, it’ll be very interesting to see him in his first round playoff game and I’m not sure it’ll go too well. The Chargers had a million ways to win that game, most notably running the ball at all. That’s something that has been a problem for Kansas City. For years they haven’t been able to run the ball well enough in the second half to salt away games, but Isiah Pacheco ran for 4.9 yards per carry this season and is the physical, between the tackles runner they’ve needed.
The Chiefs are 5-11-1 against the spread this season, they’ve not been reliable covering spread, especially over a touchdown spread like this game, but this is Patrick Mahomes at home in the playoffs. He’s 4-0 in the divisional round with nine touchdowns and no interceptions and 308.0 passing yards per game. The Jags are a fun story and Lawrence is exciting, but he’s not ready for Mahomes and Arrowhead in January, because that’s a different animal entirely.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change