Ranking KC Chiefs’ potential opponents in Wild Card round

1. Cincinnati Bengals

Odds they meet: <1%

Believe it or not, it is still mathematically possible for the Cincinnati Bengals to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Round. That would involve them losing both of their final two games against Buffalo and Baltimore, which is possible since the Bills are a great team and the Ravens have already beaten them this season. It would also require the Chiefs to drop their games against the Broncos and Raiders. The odds of this matchup occurring in the first round are about 1 in 131, so I wouldn’t be nervous about the scenario coming to fruition. All the Bengals need to clinch the AFC North in Week 17 is a win over Buffalo in addition to a Baltimore loss.

If somehow everything falls into place and we get this first-round matchup, it should be panic time for Kansas City. It’s no secret that the Bengals seem to own the Chiefs and that’s the case for a variety of reasons. One reason is that Joe Burrow is a fantastic quarterback that is near Patrick Mahomes’ level. Second, they have arguably the best wide receiver room in the NFL. Third, they have a great defense that alters its style depending on the opponent. Fourth, they are patient with the running game and playcalling, making them even more difficult to defend. Fifth, and arguably the most important point, they don’t make dumb mistakes late in games, which has been an issue for the Chiefs this season.

In the end, the chances of the Chiefs playing the Bengals in the first round are remote, but not zero. If this were to somehow come true, the gambler’s fallacy tells us that Kansas City isn’t likely to beat Cincinnati just because they’ve lost to them three times in a row, and “the Bengals aren’t likely to be the Chiefs a fourth in a row”. If the Chiefs play their A-game, they’ll likely advance, but anything less than their A-game, and the Bengals will send them home for the second straight postseason.