Why the KC Chiefs are not the favorites in the AFC

The Bengals have their number

It’s no secret that the Chiefs have struggled to beat the Joe Burrow-led Cincinnati Bengals. In the calendar year of 2022 alone, Kansas City is 0-3 against them. One of the more frustrating issues is that the Chiefs have had ample opportunities to win the game in the fourth quarter of every one of those games.

But why do the Chiefs struggle with them so much? Part of it is that the Bengals have the best receiving core in the NFL, which is a bad matchup for a young secondary. Another reason is that Joe Burrow is almost as good as Mahomes and playing an elite quarterback is always tough. The Bengals are also more disciplined than the Chiefs and rarely shoot themselves in the foot late in games as Kansas City often does.

In addition, Cincinnati is also more than willing to change its defense to match its opponent’s offensive style. They don’t play the same coverages over and over again unless they know the offense can’t beat it. The Bengals’ defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, has also learned to not blitz Patrick Mahomes. In the three games against Kansas City, Anarumo blitzed Mahomes on only 15.8% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus ($). For reference, Mahomes has been blitzed on 23.8% of his dropbacks this season, outside of Week 13.

The Bengals own the Chiefs. Plain and simple. That will be true until Kansas City can finally beat Cincinnati in the playoffs.

Conclusion

I’m not saying the Chiefs are incapable of winning the AFC and advancing to Super Bowl LVII but there are many causes for concern. If they don’t cease turning the ball over, they’re going to be bounced from the playoffs. If they continue to struggle on special teams, they will be free to take a vacation in early February. If they don’t start running the ball consistently, they’ll have a hard time beating both Cincinnati and Buffalo. If their defense doesn’t stop leaking oil, they’re not sniffing the Super Bowl. If Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie don’t step up, all it will take is one sack and/or forced fumble to ruin a playoff game.

If the Chiefs are unable to clean up the majority of these issues before the commencement of the playoffs, I just don’t see how one can pick them to win multiple playoff games. I’m not going to completely count them out, but things have to start changing immediately. Some of these are more fixable than others, and I believe that they have the highest ceiling out of any team in the NFL, but potential doesn’t mean much if they don’t start to solve these problems.

Despite the victories, the team did not inspire confidence against Denver or Houston. Struggling to beat two teams with a combined record of 4-20-1 coming into the games is utterly embarrassing for a team that considers itself a Super Bowl contender. If they want to play in Super Bowl LVII on February 12, they need to start fixing these problems, but the Bengals and Bills (who have both beaten the Chiefs so far this season) should be considered bigger favorites than Kansas City at this point.