Why the KC Chiefs are not the favorites in the AFC
Playcalling and inconsistent running game
Andy Reid is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. It’s not completely unfair to say that Patrick Mahomes would not be Patrick Mahomes without him. He’s an excellent innovator and play designer, but he’s not without his faults.
I’m not a big “establish the run” guy, but the Chiefs need to start giving it more focus. Kansas City, with Patrick Mahomes, will first and foremost always be a passing team, but that doesn’t mean they should completely ignore running the football. Run the d*** ball when facing light boxes, if up big late in the game, and if Mahomes is taking too many hits. Relying so heavily on #15 to be your entire offense is not a healthy strategy in the long run, and running effectively will open up more favorable coverages in the passing game. It also doesn’t have to be straight-up runs; it can be quick screens, jet sweeps, and anything that will get the ball out of Mahomes’ hands in an instant. Reid also needs to incorporate more runs from under center to help establish play-action. Ironically, the Chiefs are incredible on third and long but struggle on third and short. Part of that is because of their issues with running the ball.
Let’s circle back to play-action. Do you know which quarterback (with at least 150 dropbacks this season) has the highest offensive grade (91.7), passing grade (91.0), and passer rating (122.1) on play-action plays, according to Pro Football Focus ($)? Patrick Lavon Mahomes II. Of the 37 quarterbacks (at least 150 dropbacks), Mahomes ranks tied for 22nd in the rate of dropbacks in the play-action (22.9%). In addition, his rate of turnover worth plays drops from 2.6% to 1.3% on such plays. Although he has a 122.1 passer rating on PA, his rating drops to 99.9 on non-play-action passes, sixth in the NFL. Andy Reid needs to incorporate more running, and especially play-action passes, into his game planning. It will improve both the running game and passing offense simultaneously.
It’s not like the Chiefs can’t run block; they absolutely can, but they just don’t run enough. There are going to be games where the opposing defensive line is just too strong to run against, like against Tennessee, but Reid needs to take what’s given. One reason I’m more concerned about this than almost every other issue is that some NFL people believe that a team can’t just suddenly become a run team in the middle of the season and that it needs to be ingrained at the start of training camp. The Chiefs, with their offensive line and Pacheco/McKinnon, can run the ball well but actively choose not to do it way too often.
Offensive tackles aren’t reliable
The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the best interior offensive lines in the NFL, but their offensive tackles leave a lot to be desired. After the failed contract negotiations this past Summer, Orlando Brown Jr. did not report to training camp and did not sign his franchise tag until August, which unfortunately caused a lot of resentment from Chiefs fans. Andrew Wylie has been around for several years but has never quite established himself as anything better than a solid swing tackle or “playable” right tackle. He’s been serviceable at guard but has been mostly a tackle over the past two seasons.
I believe it’s fair to say that Orlando Brown Jr. has been one of the most disappointing players on the team this season. Although I don’t think he’s been as bad as many fans think, he’s not playing up to the standard that warrants the huge contract extension he asked for several months ago. He’s not a terrible player, but he’s not in the same universe as Laremy Tunsil or Trent Williams when it comes to protecting the blindside. Both players have been playing a lot better lately than they were early in the season, but that doesn’t mean that’s good enough come playoff time when the pass rushers only get better.
If the Chiefs can keep Patrick Mahomes clean, then they’re virtually unstoppable on offense. Mahomes is Pro Football Focus’ ($) highest-graded quarterback when kept clean (94.2), which has only been on only 65.4% of his dropbacks, 26th out of 37 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this season.