Why the KC Chiefs are not the favorites in the AFC
Turnover issues
It’s no secret that Kansas City has a serious turnover problem. They struggle to force them on defense, but they also can’t stop turning the ball over on offense and special teams. The Chiefs are in the low 20s in takeaways and are tied for fourth in giveaways. The offense and special teams turn the ball over way too much with a defense that isn’t great and struggles to force takeaways themselves. They have turned the ball over in every game this season, except for Week 2 against the Chargers and Week 5 against the Raiders.
Out of every NFL team currently in a playoff position, the Chiefs have (by far) the worst turnover differential at -6. The next closest teams are the Dolphins and Commanders at -2 each, and both teams are currently the #7 seeds in their respective conferences. That’s not going to get the job done in the playoffs. If they lose the turnover differential, even if by just one, against the Bills or Bengals, Kansas City is going home early. It’s a minor miracle that they are 11-3 with an awful turnover margin.
Some people believe that turnovers are luck and will “even out” in the long run, but the Chiefs haven’t given anyone a reason to believe they will stop doing so. How can one say the turnovers will stop when they’ve had a turnover in TEN straight games? They don’t have a good enough defense to constantly put the unit in difficult positions. Speaking of defense…
Shaky defense
One of the most glaring issues during the Patrick Mahomes era has been inconsistency on defense. The unit has had its ups and downs, but it’s mostly been negative over the past five seasons.
It’s no secret that the Chiefs’ defense this season is very young. Only two players in the secondary, who see consistent playing time, are in at least their fourth NFL season, Justin Reid and Juan Thornhill. Steve Spagnuolo also relies upon three rookies and a third-year player to hold the fort at cornerback. Out of the four linebackers with at least 190 defensive snaps played this season, the longest-tenured one is… Darius Harris (signed as a UDFA in 2019). In addition, George Karlaftis, another rookie, has rushed the passer the second most times this season. We came into the season knowing that youth on the defensive side of the ball could be an issue, especially early in the season, but it appears the unit is playing worse as of late than it did early in the season, the opposite of what we expected.
Their front four has struggled to generate pressure by itself as Chris Jones is the only reliable player and even he has been relatively quiet over the past month. Frank Clark hasn’t done much since 2019. Mike Danna is a solid depth option. George Karlaftis is still very young. Carlos Dunlap is decent as a rotational player. Everyone else is not reliable in any way. Their safeties have been a huge disappointment and Willie Gay has not had the breakout season we hoped he would.
Now, personnel isn’t the only issue as Steve Spagnuolo has made some questionable decisions this season, including playing too much zone and inconsistency with blitzing. In many games this season, the defense has played at a subpar level in the first half only to turn it around in the second half. Why can’t the unit play a consistently clean game from start to finish against a team that isn’t starting a backup quarterback or a washed veteran? That’s not going to cut it against the Dolphins, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, or Justin Herbert.